In addition to an overproduction of potatoes, faltering sales of fries are creating a very poor market scenario. With all the unrest and rising costs worldwide, it is touch and go for the potato sector. In this analysis, we list eight crucial facts influencing the market. Read on.
1. Global sales are growing, but Europe is not benefiting.
In 2025, sales of frozen fries increased for the nineteenth time in twenty years to 4,81 million tonnes. This concerns volume sold outside the exporters' 'local markets'. In the case of the EU-4 and Poland, this therefore concerns non-EU sales. These countries collectively hold 54% of this volume. In 2024, this was 59%, and in 2023, 62%. North America has managed to keep its market share, approximately one-fifth of total world exports, stable. Growth is concentrated in six emerging countries.
2. Differences between European countries
Clear differences are visible between countries regarding the sales of fries. In 2025, Belgium exported almost 15% fewer fries outside the EU, and the Netherlands 6% fewer. Germany exported 13% fewer. In contrast, Poland exported 1,2% more fries, and France as much as 40%. This is entirely due to increased processing capacity, a larger potato volume, and more product being imported into and exported from other European countries in France.
3. The rise of China and India
In 2025, China exported 378.000 tonnes of fries outside its local markets, primarily in Southeast Asia. This has made it one of the largest exporters in a short time, selling more product than Canada on the global market (228.000 tonnes in 2025). In 2025, export volume grew by 92%. India follows with 258.500 tonnes, an increase of 50%. Egypt, on the other hand, saw its volume decrease by a few percent, but still accounts for a respectable 262.600 tonnes.
4. Dependence on the Middle East
During the fourth quarter of 2025, countries in the Middle East imported 90.700 tonnes of fries. That is a fifth more than in 2024. Almost half of this volume came from Europe. In the whole of 2025, the seven most important countries in this region imported over 338.000 tonnes of fries from Europe, meaning the Middle East accounts for almost a quarter of total European sales. Since the start of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, exports have almost come to a standstill. The longer the war continues, the greater the impact on fries sales.
5. Higher transport costs
Fuel and container costs are rising rapidly. At the end of March, costs for marine fuels were 64% higher than at the end of February, before the outbreak of the war. The Drewry World Container Index has been rising for four consecutive weeks. Costs have risen sharply, particularly on routes between Europe and China, by 10%. These increases are expected to continue in the coming weeks. The cost of insuring cargo has doubled.
6. Transport routes the bottleneck
In addition to rising transport costs, it is once again becoming abundantly clear how dependent global trade is on busy shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Due to the increased risks, thirteen shipping companies, including the world's largest shipping company MSC, have already decided to avoid these waterways. Ships must sail around the Cape of Good Hope, which extends transport time by an average of ten days. Although the Suez Canal may be open, more and more ships are avoiding the canal due to recent attacks by Houthi rebels.
7. Sales within the EU are growing
In 2025, the EU-4 + Poland exported 210.900 tonnes less fries overseas than in 2024. This translates into 383.450 tonnes of 'potato raw material' that the processing industry theoretically needed less of. On the other hand, exports to other EU member states grew by 5,4% last year to over 3,4 million tonnes, an increase of 175.000 tonnes. This partially compensates for the decline outside the EU. The average price level per ton fell by 5% but remains very high. Overseas, the average selling price fell by almost 10%.
8. Overproduction detrimental to market development
European potato processors have massively increased their production capacity over the last five years, keeping in mind the annually increasing consumption of fries. Now that Europe is seeing its market share slowly erode, there is structural overcapacity. Insiders say that as a result, production lines, or even entire factories, have to close for short or long periods. A consumption potato production of 27,5 million tonnes in 2025 proved too much for the factories. It is up to the sector to collectively find a balance between production and processing on the one hand, and sales on the other.
Conclusion: a close call?
With the above facts in mind, it is safe to say that it is a close call. Every week that the war with Iran drags on is also bad news for the fries market. Much depends on politics and whether the countries reach an end to the war quickly. Europe cannot afford to lose the Gulf States as customers. In addition, there are the ever-rising production and transport costs.
It is clear that the EU-4 plus Poland are heading for a decline in acreage. A significant reduction is in everyone's interest. The last time acreage decreased was in 2021 (-4,8%). In 2012, there was a reduction of 8,7%. The last time acreage fell by more than 10% was in 1997 and 1998. Ultimately, yield per hectare has the final say. At 42 tonnes per hectare, this was particularly high in 2025. If we end up with an average of at or below 40 tonnes, the balance could quickly return to the market next season.