Demand for seed potatoes is lower than expected, while supply is actually increasing due to a large harvest. This puts sales under pressure and indicates a shrinking of the potato acreage. Read more about seed potato sales and acreage reduction.
Seed potato sellers in Southern Europe indicate that the potato acreage in Southern Europe is shrinking by more than 20% this year, reports Operational Director Peter Ton of seed potato trading house HZPC. And in Northwest Europe, too, there appears to be a significant decline in acreage based on seed potato sales.
Ton is still keeping his options open, but now thinks that the reduction in the acreage of ware potatoes in the EU-4 (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and France) could well turn out to be greater than 10%. According to him, the extent to which the decline reaches double digits still depends on the choice growers will make at the last minute.
Ton realizes there are few alternatives. That is why the arable farmer might still opt for potatoes at the last minute. Cheap seed potatoes can persuade the farmer to grow somewhat more potatoes than planned. In addition, there is currently limited visibility regarding the use of own seed potatoes from Farm Saved Seed (FSS).
Other destination
Seed potato trading houses are noticing the shrinking acreage in their sales. Ton believes that nationwide, approximately 20% of seed potatoes will not find a destination as seed. "The 2025 harvest will be far from sold out. There are differences per trading house, but I expect that a substantial quantity of the oversized potatoes, as well as the tuber size, will find a different destination."
The remaining seed potatoes are destined for consumption, animal feed, or the digester. The surplus is the result of lower demand for seed, but the large harvest in 2025 is also to blame. Reports to the NAK show that the acreage increased by 7% in 2025 to 41.649 hectares. In addition, hectare yields turned out to be about 8% higher than the five-year average due to favorable growing conditions.
The consequence is that the seed potato sector has suddenly moved from a shortage to a surplus situation this season. Partly at the urging of the fries industry, the range of varieties specifically for fries production has been significantly expanded over the past two years. As a result, seed potato production may have gone slightly too far, and this effect is further exacerbated by a sudden reduction in demand from manufacturers.
The lower demand for seed potatoes makes the sales season very difficult for sellers of starting material. Price differences in this market are significant. While one variety fetches well over €50, another remains stuck at barely €20 per 100 kilos.
Where the emphasis lies on exports to Egypt and Morocco, it is particularly difficult, Ton explains. On the other hand, trade with Algeria and Asia is going well this year. The same differences occur in the sales of seed potatoes for premium fries demanded by fast-food chains and for basic fries. This translates into sales volume and price.
Forecast price
At seed potato trading house HZPC, those price differences are smoothed out; the high prices of certain varieties compensate for lower prices elsewhere. This results in a forecast price of €44 per 100 kilos, which was published in early March.
At sister company Stet, the system is different. There, varieties are categorized by price range. This results in significant price differences, but on average, Stet's seed potato pool is on par with HZPC's forecast price.
Seed potato cultivation is also expected to show a decline in 2026. This will not happen at the same pace as in ware potato cultivation, states Ton. "It is a decision that each trading house must make for itself. In the Netherlands, I expect a slight contraction. Certain varieties are being significantly scaled back, while promising new varieties are actually being expanded."