Major acreage reduction needed in European potato cultivation

Simply put, the production of ware potatoes has far exceeded the needs of processors. Thanks to record acreage and production, coupled with lower sales for fries, the situation in the chain has flipped 180 degrees. We recently produced an extensive report on the consequences. analysis.

Even before contracting for the 2026 harvest year began, insiders called for a reduction of the consumption potato acreage in the EU-4 countries (Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands) by at least 10% this year. For a long time, sentiment among growers leaned towards a reduction of just under 5% rather than a further contraction. That mood has since shifted. However, a substantial margin of uncertainty must be taken into account.

Unusual, but not impossible
Recent history shows that a substantial reduction in acreage is difficult to achieve. The acreage last decreased in 2021, by 4,8% (23.870 hectares), after the potato market had also imploded. Corona was the main culprit then, and the sector recovered even stronger than ever.

In 2012, there was even an 8,7% reduction in acreage (39.100 hectares), when significantly less was planted following the very bad year of 2011. The last time the acreage decreased by more than 10% occurred was in the late 90s. It is therefore certainly highly unusual, but not impossible.

In the EU-4, the consumption potato acreage was estimated at 606.190 hectares last year. With a decrease of 10%, this translates to an absolute drop to 545.571 hectares (-60.619 hectares). This is considerably more than was achieved in 2021 or 2012. As a result, European potato cultivation still exceeds the 2023 acreage by 5,8%, when market trends were still healthy. However, the increases of the last two seasons are largely wiped out.

Responsibility
The total acreage figure is a flattened reality. The four different countries have their own starting point. Last year, the French acreage increased by nearly 14% by 24.000 hectares, and that of Germany by 8,2%. A growth of 16.690 hectares. To make a difference in Northwest Europe, the decline must therefore also be greatest here.

Assuming a generic decline does not do justice to the reality. How countries are moving individually is still very difficult to say. According to insiders, the French acreage is declining considerably this year. Arable farmers there want firm agreements for their sales, and these are harder to make this year. There are also buyers who are reducing the acreage in Northern France and prefer cultivation closer to home.

In Germany, potato growers may be opting more for starch and flakes again, although these segments are also saturated. For Belgium and the Netherlands, the signal regarding a clear decline is less strong. It is primarily the processors who are reducing acreage.

Where a significant contraction is clearly noticeable is in the acreage of early potatoes. With full storage sheds, fry producers and the intermediaries have halved this crop, according to insiders. This is, of course, a relatively small segment, but hopefully, it will provide some breathing room for the last storage potatoes.

The overview above shows a possible scenario for this year. For the yields per hectare, we have used the five-year average for that country. Under this scenario, the area of ​​ware potatoes decreases by 44.000 hectares, representing a 7,3% contraction. In theory, this yields a revenue of 23,74 million tonnes.

Revenue remains high
This yield is 13,6% below last year's level and just slightly above the five-year average of 23,63 million tonnes. With this volume, the potato industry in the EU-4 is better balanced, although it remains to be seen whether it is sufficient. It is still more than the 22,89 million tonnes harvested in 2023. Much also depends on how sales for fries develop and how much product the Middle East purchases. That situation is currently very uncertain.

Ultimately, it is the yield per hectare, and thus the total harvest, that, together with the acreage, determines what will be harvested. We saw in 2012 that things can take unexpected turns. First, a substantial reduction in acreage, followed by severe drought. That ultimately resulted in high market prices. Such a situation is therefore not inconceivable.

Movements in other countries are also important for a healthy potato sector. In Poland, the potato acreage increased last year to a total of 213.000 hectares, the largest area of ​​2021. It is clear that the acreage is shrinking this year, or partly shifting towards more starch. Reliable estimates are still lacking. In Southern Europe, the acreage already declined sharply last year. Seed potato sellers We are even talking about a reduction of more than 20% for this year.

Less seed potatoes
The most recent seed potato export figures show that European countries purchased a fifth less seed potatoes up to March 1st. Trading houses confirm that they are left with large quantities. Bad news for these companies, but it does show that the potato acreage will decrease significantly this year. However, insiders warn against using more domestically produced seed potatoes (farm-saved seed), which makes it difficult to make a good estimate.

An acreage reduction of more than 7% should therefore be feasible and desirable from a market perspective, but whether the 10% will be reached remains a big question mark. The buyers are willing, but whether growers will go along with this remains to be seen. They are probably doing the math again now. The land is available and free seed potatoes are readily available at a low price. On the other hand, firm agreements cannot be made and cultivation costs, particularly for diesel and fertilizer, continue to rise. Whether a grower dares to take that risk is up to each individual entrepreneur.