Potato growers in the United States are expected to plant significantly fewer potatoes this spring. As a result, the acreage could reach its lowest level in more than half a century. Canada, however, is benefiting from this trend. How? You can read about it in this analysis of the North American potato acreage for 2026.
In the US, 364.620 hectares of potatoes were planted last year, according to the USDA. The area actually harvested amounts to 362.120 hectares. That is exactly 2.500 hectares less than what went into the ground. In Canada, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the area planted amounted to 160.220 hectares and 158.518 hectares harvested.
Smallest since 1952
American insiders now assume that cultivation will shrink by 2,7% this year. This amounts to 9.713 hectares, bringing the total acreage to 354.907 hectares. If this proves true, it means that fewer potatoes have been grown in the country than since 1952. The last time the acreage took such a dive was in 2010, when 357.220 hectares were planted.
It is important to also highlight the situation in Canada in this story. The Canadian growers' organization United Potato does not expect the potato acreage to change significantly this year. It forecasts a decrease of only 0,1% in its first forecast. Cultivation is expected to decline significantly only in Quebec and Ontario. This is mainly offset by Manitoba, where an increase of nearly 6% is expected due to increased processing capacity.
Small contraction in total
Not everyone agrees with this. A small decline is expected from the Americas, amounting to just over 1%. This causes estimates to fluctuate between 158.640 and 160.568 hectares. Based on the latter figure, the total for North America comes to 515.475 hectares. That is still 1,8% less than the 524.840 hectares of last year.
Since 2018, when 133.730 hectares were planted in Canada, the acreage has grown steadily. This is primarily due to increased processing capacity and a larger volume of exports to the US and other destinations.
Back to the US, then. With a five-year average yield of 50,54 tonnes per hectare, the harvest for the estimated acreage amounts to 17,94 million tonnes. That is the lowest volume since 2013.
Biggest drop in Ohio
It is striking that, in absolute figures, this decline in American acreage is primarily attributable to Idaho. Insiders expect 6.000 hectares less to be planted. On the one hand, this is not surprising, given that the country is by far the largest potato state with 121.400 hectares of potatoes. In Washington, the second largest state with 56.660 hectares, the acreage is not expected to change. Further declines are visible in Florida, Texas, California, and Nebraska.
Idaho has three major french fry producers: Lamb Weston, McCain, and Simplot. Growers have reportedly finalized their contract negotiations with these players. Two of the three have kept their contracted volume stable, and for the third, it is even growing slightly. Prices have decreased by an average of 4%. Processors of granules and flakes, however, are making significant cuts to their contract positions, with a third to even a fifth fewer potatoes.
McCain needs more potatoes
Undoubtedly, independent potato growers in this state are choosing to plant less. In the US, too, the free market has been meager so far this season. Another sign is that more land is being left fallow to make better use of scarce irrigation water. In Canada, contract negotiations are still ongoing at some processors. Volumes vary by factory. McCain has significantly expanded the processing capacity at its Coaldale location in Alberta. This requires more potatoes. In other places, volume remains stable or slightly less is being grown.
The North American market has its own dynamics and therefore follows a slightly different trend than in Europe. While there is indeed a potato surplus, and US and Canadian exports of fries are also lower, there is no massive imbalance like the one we see in the EU-4. The expected sharp contraction in the US is good news for Canada, which is heavily dependent on its neighbor. Canadian fries exports were 2,5% lower in 2025, but are still 11% higher than the five-year average. Fewer potatoes in the US could cause demand to rise again.