Crisis in the fries industry hits Agrico hard

No seed potato seller can match the high prices paid last year. Several factors can be identified for this. The most important are: yield, a negative sentiment in the seed potato market, and problems with sales for fries. Hesitant buyers put extra pressure on sales, causing prices to fall.

The 2025 growing season resulted in very high yields. Earlier this year, Agrico already reported an average of 44,5 tonnes per hectare. Moreover, at 15%, there was a large proportion of oversized crops.

High yields and weak sentiment in the seed potato market are affecting all sellers. The same applies to the crisis in the french fries industry, but the effect differs per company.

Agrico holds Fontane, the main variety in potato processing, in its portfolio. In recent years, marked by strong growth in the fries industry, the variety was difficult to obtain, but this year, it is precisely this variety that is being hit the hardest. Fries manufacturers are seeking a way out of the crisis and are therefore shifting their focus more towards premium fries based on varieties such as Innovator.

Fewer seed potatoes requested 
This comes on top of the acreage reduction that potato processors are advocating this year. As a result, fewer seed potatoes of this most important variety in the sector are needed. In the Netherlands, slightly more than 6.000 hectares of Fontane seed potatoes were grown last year. With this, this variety accounted for nearly 15% of the total seed potato acreage.

Due to lower demand, Agrico has had to divert a portion of its Fontanes to animal feed and fermentation. Because it is a large variety, the cooperative is being hit relatively hard by this. HZPC also has a French fry variety, Challenger, a portion of which had to be sold elsewhere; however, Innovator is attracting more interest due to its premium qualities and is therefore less affected.

There is another factor that determines the presentation of seed potato prices by Agrico and HZPC. Agrico bases its indicative price on all delivered tonnes of 28 millimeters or more. HZPC determines its forecast price based on seed potato sizes. This helps HZPC to provide a higher forecast price of €44 than the indication published by Agrico this week. However, taking into account the same percentage of oversized potatoes, the HZPC price comes out at approximately €38 per 100 kilos across all tonnes.

In both cases, prices are significantly lower than the historically high prices of the 2024 harvest. In one case, it involves a drop of more than half, while in the other, prices are falling by approximately 30%. Whereas fry factories have pushed for the expansion of seed potato cultivation in recent years, seed potato trading houses are now indicating that they will cut back where necessary to bring their variety portfolio back into balance with demand per region and destination.