For nineteen years, potatoes were sold using a bingo wheel based on the potato futures market. This emotionless sales method proved surprisingly successful year after year. With the end of this sales instrument, growers are losing an important weapon to hedge against price risks. You can read what this means for the sector in this background article.
You have to stop at your peak, so the proverb goes, but for the very last one potato bingo That argument does not hold water. The average sales result of €8,73 per 100 kilos is not the lowest ever, but it stands in stark contrast to the 2024 harvest year. That was when the best result ever was achieved, with a sales result of €30,43 per 100 kilos.
From stock market monkey to bingo wheel
The Potato Bingo was devised in 2007 by DCA, now DCA Market Intelligence, the publisher of Boerenbusiness"The idea for this came from the stock market monkey on Wall Street that bought and sold stocks," explains co-creator Kees Maas of ADM Investor Services Europe (formerly DCA Finance). "This stock market monkey managed to beat even the most experienced stock traders. By determining selling moments with the help of bingo balls, we have shown that this also applies to the sale of potatoes."
"Stock traders often try to time their buying or selling moment," adds ADM colleague Edwin Burgers. "In practice, that never works. Bingo has shown that trading without emotions always yields better results."
Shock absorber
The Potato Bingo flawlessly demonstrates the added value of a potato futures market. It acts as a shock absorber in a volatile market. While the average sales result for the 2025 harvest is admittedly low at €8,73, it is still significantly more than if you sell the potatoes for €0 to €1 on the physical market. Even in an 'expensive year', the bingo works to your advantage, as evidenced by the result of the 2024 harvest year.
Especially now that the market is becoming much more volatile, and you, as a potato grower, are dealing with more risks, you want to have a tool at your disposal to hedge price risk and to have an indication of the future. That suggested WUR professor Joost Pennings also said this earlier this year. "As an arable farmer and in the potato industry, you really want to have this information. The light might not illuminate the entire room, but it does make the contours of the market visible."
Maas reasons in the same way: "What is the potato price for April 2027? Who can tell me that? I can ask my buyer, but they don't know either. Is that the contract price level, or is the price lower? The futures market provided the answer to that crucial question."
Greater bandwidth
According to Pennings, it is a proven fact that the physical market becomes more volatile when a futures market disappears. It is clear that the potato market can be described as extremely volatile. In the recent past, the PotatoNL quotation touched €62,50 (July 1, 2024), but also €1,50 (April 20, 2026). The market apparently moves within that range, barring a €0 price for supplementary potatoes or even a negative price for feed potatoes. By comparison, between 2017 and 2019, that range lay between €3,75 and €32,50.
Individual growers will miss this tool for determining their cultivation and sales strategies. For the various potato pools still operating in the Netherlands, the loss is possibly even greater. While the share of pools has gradually decreased, five pools remain active: APF Eriva, Aviko, Nedato, Q-potato, and Schaap Holland. They made use of the futures market to varying degrees to hedge their price risk.
A good mood during the summer months could often already be capitalized on in a pre-sale pool. If the physical sales season turns out to be slower, the pools still perform relatively well. Bingo has demonstrated this time and again. The pools must now try to make more forward agreements with buyers or wait to see if demand arises. As a result, this sales opportunity also becomes more volatile.
Price risk increases
What is the reality for the potato grower? He relies primarily on fixed-price contracts with his buyer, usually the french fry factory. This is the model that North America has been using for decades. Under this model, a portion of the potatoes always remains unpriced.
This year, that represents a considerable volume. The price attached to this depends entirely on the free market, which experiences sharp peaks and deep troughs. Especially in the face of negative market sentiment, it is difficult to make good agreements with your buyer regarding this. In addition to climate, financing, and political risks, among others, price risk is becoming increasingly dominant for the potato grower.