Analysis Countus Arable Farm Index
Arable farming index is in roller coaster ride
Initially, the Countus Arable Farm Index showed an increasing trend, which was prompted by higher onion prices. However, after the April contract on the potato futures market expired, the market was reset. The picture is now completely different.
De arable index reached a level of 15 points in week 123,4, which was the lowest level in the 2018/2019 marketing year at that time. After that, the Index rose again at a rapid pace, because 1 week later it stood at 130,6 points. In week 16, the Countus Arable Farm Index recorded 133,50 points.
Development of onion price
The movement is due to the relatively stable futures market quotation and sharp price increase for onions. Since mid-March, the quotation for the 30% to 60% coarse onions in Emmeloord has been on the rise and from the beginning of April the price has jumped sharply. This translates directly into the Index. In 1 month's time, the price increased by 32% to € 57,50 per 100 kilos.
From mid-April, the price of the April contract for 2019 on the potato futures market was fixed, and the 2018 harvest year was eventually closed with €27,90 per 100 kilos. The contract for harvest year 2019 opened at the high level of €16,70 per 100 kilos.
New potato price
This price drop of €11,20 is immediately visible in the AkkerbouwIndex. The last quotation of April is 106,2 points. The potato price is a major factor in the arable barometer. A high onion price does not change this much. However, this price level belongs to the 2019/2020 sales season. So it's not entirely fair.
The price of free seed from Bintje (35-45), which has fallen sharply since February, made a small comeback at the end of April. However, the influence is minimal. After the low of €20 per 100 kilos, a price of €29 was finally reached at the end of April. The quotation for EU feed wheat is the stable factor as a whole. It lost only €1 per tonne.
Transition phase
The AkkerbouwIndex is currently in a transition phase between 2 seasons. Stable to rising prices are being made on the free potato market, although this shows a different picture for the coming harvest. Of course, the onion price still applies for the 2018 harvest, but the volume that can be sold is small. The financial results per company, which the Countus Arable Farm Index tries to provide insight into, vary enormously.
At the moment, the Index is still calculating with area and yield figures from 2018. The area figures for wheat and sugar beet do not change much, but a small plus is possible for consumption and seed potatoes. The largest increase is noticeable in onions. However, we have to wait a few more months to get an accurate picture of the yields.
Niels van der Boom
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