News Countus Arable Farm Index
Arable farming index closes season in a special way
Despite the fact that the Countus Arable Farming Index ended the season at a relatively high level, the question is whether arable farmers are satisfied with the return. The end of an eventful season also shows a very erratic course of the Index.
The Countus arable index is formed on the basis of the pricing of 4 arable products: winter wheat, ware potatoes, seed onions and seed potatoes. These crops are linked to the 4 quotations: the April contract on the EEX for consumption potatoes, the Emmeloord stock exchange quotation of 30% to 60% coarse for seed onions, the price of EU feed wheat in Rotterdam for winter wheat and the Bintje A 35-45 quotation for seed potatoes.
Last year
About 1 year ago, the Index ended the old season with mixed prices. Emmeloord noted onion prices between €3 and €5 per 100 kilos and at €191 per tonne, the wheat price was at almost the same level. This also applied to the pricing of the April contract. It reached a level of €29 per 18 kilos on Saturday 100 June. This year, the April 2020 contract reached a level of €26 on Thursday, June 17,90.
The prices of seed onions are missing in the June Index. Beurs Emmeloord already stopped listing seed onions in mid-May. The Index is therefore almost entirely supported by the potato futures market. The wheat price is stable. This is also reflected in the course. In the first 3 weeks of June, the arable index to a low of 103,8 points. In the closing week, the Index rose to 111 points.
Last year the season closed at 94,2 points and in the past 5 years the Index was only 1 times higher. This was in 2015: 128,7 points. This brings the 5-year average to 97,88 points. Despite the relatively high level, arable farmers probably expected more from the 2018/2019 season. Finally, the highest level was reached in week 1, when the Index reached 137,1 points. That's not a record; in 2011 and 2007 the price reached a level of 160 points.
Future Movement
Last year the Arable Farm Index continued to fall through week 28; then the low of 77,5 points was reached. The Index then continued to climb into the new year. The Index also fell in 2015, but then it continued to fall. This also applied to the course in 2017. The weather forecasts and the associated harvest of wheat, onions and potatoes will be decisive.
Up to and including May, the Arable Farm Index still used the acreage figures from last year. These have now been corrected with the figures for the situation in 2019. The sugar beet area is the only one to fall. Wheat, seed onions and ware potatoes are all grown more. With regard to the yield, the figures from the 2018 harvest are still being used. However, it will take a few months before a complete picture can be given.
Niels van der Boom
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