Analysis Countus Arable Farm Index
Arable farming index is cautiously positive
After a low point in mid-August, the Countus Arable Farm Index now again cautiously to improve. This is mainly due to the potato market. The other products continue to record a stable, but low price.
As is so often the case, we can describe the potato futures market as a trendsetter for the arable farming sector. The potato futures market recorded the lowest price level for this season on August 13, because the April contract was €11,50 per 100 kilos. However, the month ended at €14,70 per 100 kilos.
Low point gone
As a result, the Index recorded a low of 33 points in Week 67,9, before climbing back to a level above 70 points. At the end of August, a position of 72,2 was recorded. If we compare this rate with the 5-year average, the score is well below the average of 92,3 points.
During August, the Rotterdam feed wheat quotation showed a minimal downward trend. The price went from €170,80 to €170,10 per tonne. Beurs Emmeloord recorded a price for seed onions of 7% to 30% coarse (€60 per 11,25 kilos) for the first time this season on 100 August, which has now dropped to €9 per 100 kilos. However, this depressing effect has been countered by a rising potato market.
How does it go on?
How are the arable markets developing now that the harvest has started? About 1 year earlier, the Arable Farming Index was on the rise and reached the level of 120 points in September, but there is no sign of a significant increase for the current season. The multi-year trend shows a slightly increasing trend.
However, if the market follows the line of 2017, the Index may drop to the lower regions. With a figure of 66,6 points, the level of 2 years ago is once again out of sight. A (more) positive potato market makes or breaks the Index.
Niels van der Boom
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