News Countus Arable Farm Index
Arable yield has a solid bottom
The Countus Arable Farm Index has reached its provisional peak for the 2019/2020 marketing season in November. The price remained remarkably stable during November, which is mainly due to a robust-looking potato market.
The index of the Countus Arable Farm Index rose from 4 points to 90,8 points in 92,2 weeks. This marks the highest point for the current sales season. The lowest point was reached in week 33: 70,3 points.
Average
This result is in stark contrast to last fall. Then at the end of November an index figure of 132,4 points was recorded. The 5-year average of the Arable Farming Index is 98,28 points, after which it usually decreases slightly in the last weeks of the year. The question is whether 2019 will mirror this image.
The Index is not formed by outliers in product prices, but mainly by the solid bottom. The potato futures market is leading in this regard. In mid-November, this crept to €17,90 per 100 kilos (the April contract). After a decline, it went this way again at the end of November. The quotation for yellow onions (30% to 60% coarse) dropped slightly during November: from €12,50 to €11,75 per 100 kilos. Nevertheless, the market mood here can also be called positive.
European grain prices
The wheat price rose sharply at the end of November on the futures market in Paris. Physical wheat prices are also on the rise. In Rotterdam, 1 tonne of feed wheat is worth €189,50 per tonne, which means that there is also a good bottom line in the market. The reason for the higher prices is concerns about the European wheat acreage.
Due to wet conditions, a large part of the acreage has not yet been sown and many crops are in poor condition. In the Netherlands, too, a great deal still needs to be sown and, in view of the saturated fields, they are more likely to switch to summer grain.
December forecast
The question now is whether December can pick up the thread. This happened last year. However, if we look at the multi-year average, a decrease is to be expected. In view of the sentiment on the potato, onion and wheat markets, the basis is stable.
Niels van der Boom
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