News Countus Arable Farm Index
Crop year 2019 ends on average
The Countus Arable Farm Index by the end of May below the median. With the close of 2019, this line is finally coming into view again. Higher onion and potato prices are to blame for this.
Few years have seen such an erratic course as 2019. In week 1 of 2019, with 137,1 points, the highest point of the Countus Arable Farm Index reaches. For a long time, a level above 130 could be held. However, when the agricultural markets switched to the new harvest, things changed. The low was 67,7 points in week 25 (mid-June). It took six months for the price to bounce back.
Average result
The year ends on top of the 5-year average line. The question now is whether 2020 can hold the line. The 5-year average reaches its peak at the beginning of February, only to fall again. The starting index of 100 points is not tapped.
It is the potato and onion prices that let 2019 end the year on a more positive note. The Emmeloord onion quotation already made a jump for 30-60% coarse yellow onions before the end of November. The price level of €13,50 is held throughout December, providing a stable base.
Potato market makes increase possible
The April contract of the potato futures market in Leipzig also uses this period to realize higher prices. On December 12, a peak of €18,50 per 100 kilos is reached. The price then hangs between €18,50 and €18,70. A year earlier, prices above €30,00 were not unusual. At the beginning of 2017, that was barely €5,00.
Revival not plausible
How will the first weeks of 2020 go? Looking at the past, a sudden rise in prices is unlikely. As a rule, previous years have shown a reduction in product prices and thus also in arable yields. If there is a recovery, it is expected earlier around March.
Niels van der Boom
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