What will the European potato acreage do? That is the question that occupies the sector every day. The planting of the potatoes is in full swing. Initial estimates point to a contraction.
The question is whether potato growers in Europe are following the American example. The United States had already experienced a significant contraction predicted. Growers would plant 7% fewer potatoes here compared to the past 3 years, which means the area will shrink by 25.000 hectares to 365.000 hectares. A direct consequence of the corona outbreak and stagnant sales in potato processing. Canadian potato growers are also anticipating the situation, which is why a similar percentage decline is expected here.
European area
Initial estimates assume a comparable area decline in Europe. A large proportion of the potatoes still have to be planted and the deteriorated market conditions are causing most companies to adjust their construction plans at the last minute. Market experts estimate that in the EU-5 the area will shrink by almost 8% (652.200 hectares in 2019) to the 2016 level.
The shrinkage will be less significant throughout Europe, the expectation is around 5%. The influence of Poland, a major producer of, among other things, French fries potatoes, will be significant. There is a structural decline in the potato area in Eastern Europe.
Enough for market equilibrium?
Before the corona crisis, a slight increase in the potato area in Europe compared to 2019 was obvious. In North America, the area would probably also have increased given the tight supplies last harvest year and the capacity expansion in the processing industry. It can therefore be concluded that growers anticipate the current market situation.
Whether it is enough to bring balance to the market and what it ultimately means for the potato supply in 2020/2021 depends on more factors. The growing season has a big impact. The only thing that can be said about that is that it starts dry. Never before has spring started as dry as now. The current precipitation deficit is higher than in the driest year 1976. It makes spring work on various plots a challenge and the irrigation reel more than necessary.