Agriculture and horticulture will no longer be what it used to be

Rabobank expects that the corona crisis will fundamentally change the global eating pattern and the degree of self-sufficiency in food, and the associated export dependency.

The robustness of logistics chains will be more appreciated at a time when a European or global recession seems inevitable, says Rabobank. 

Retail barely falters
Rabobank notes that of all sectors in the food chain in which the bank is active, the retail food sector will suffer the least from the consequences of the corona crisis. A slight decrease in turnover is expected in the second quarter of this year and the turnover of the supermarkets will probably no longer grow in the third quarter either.

But this is nothing compared to the expected negative turnover figures for the primary producers. All the more so because the supermarkets have so far achieved a higher turnover at the expense of the catering industry due to the corona crisis.

Dairy farming third quarter
The floriculture and horticulture sector in particular, but certainly also arable farming, has been hit hard, notes Rabobank. Dairy farming should fear significantly lower turnover, especially in the third quarter of this year. Pig farming and poultry farming occupy an intermediate position in terms of turnover decline in the food chain.

Unemployment 8%
Rabobank expects unemployment to rise to 8%. The uncertainty about the duration of the corona measures makes it difficult to accurately reflect the long-term effects for the various sectors in the food chain, especially for sectors that are very internationally oriented.

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