The restart of the catering industry is planned from 1 June. However, the potato processing industry cannot count on a rapid improvement in yield in the French fries segment. The effects of the crisis can drag on for a very long time.
If the catering industry actually opens again from June 1, albeit with the restrictions of the 1,5 meter economy, this will most likely not provide immediate relief for the chip industry and, by extension, the chip potato market. For example, Aviko does not dare to predict the effect of the relaxations on chip sales, not only in the Netherlands but also in the entire EU. The potato processor says it will examine the situation from week to week in the coming months. Farm Frites also makes no statements about expected developments.
Permanently changed consumption patterns
Wholesale Sligro, which mainly supplies the 'out of home' world, assumes that the relaxation of the measures after June 1 will not immediately lead to a normalization of market relations and consumption patterns. “It first remains to be seen whether this will actually happen on June 1. Suppose the virus revives if we do not adhere to the regulations? Then there will be no relaxation at all," says Wout Jansen, spokesperson for Sligro.
If everything goes according to plan, Jansen continues, from July 1, outdoor dining will be allowed in larger numbers with a maximum of 100 people. "And the events industry cannot remain closed indefinitely, so as to prevent a wave of bankruptcy. But as long as there is no cure for corona, the government will not allow a return to the era before corona without a fight. It is not without reason that a second package of support measures for businesses.”
Jansen assumes that consumption patterns will remain as they have been in recent months for a longer period of time. “As long as people have income, they will continue to eat as much as they used to. And when income drops, food is the last thing to be cut. But potato consumption has completely shifted to supermarkets. This means much more small packaging for consumers in supermarkets and much less bulk packaging for the catering industry.”
Continued great uncertainty
A deep recession seems inevitable if the predicted level of unemployment becomes reality. "How much is consumed outside the home?", Gea Bakker, Arable Farming sector specialist at Rabobank Nederland, also wonders. “What will be the behavior of consumers in a 1,5 meter society? What does this mean for consumption/eating behavior?" She emphasizes that it is important to have a clear picture of changes in consumption patterns.
Moreover, the Dutch potato chain has an interest in retaining export markets. "However, there is a lot of social discussion about Dutch agricultural exports," says Bakker. "All things considered, it is clear that, despite the relaxation of the corona measures, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the air."
Not only the catering industry and the catering industry have been affected by the corona measures, the entire chain of suppliers has also been severely affected. Suppliers that are wholly or largely dependent on deliveries to the catering industry and out-of-home are confronted with dramatically reduced turnover.
Billions in foodservice losses
The loss for Foodservice (company restaurants, etc.) amounts to no less than €2020 billion in 7,1. This is evident from calculations by the FoodService Institute Netherlands based on the second worst scenario of the CPB and the effects that became visible in the first 4 weeks of the lockdown. The catering industry seems likely to never be what it was again for the time being.