Farm to Fork turns the food chain upside down

The new 'Farm to Fork strategy' of the European Commission is likely to result in a decline in agricultural production, a rise in farm incomes, an extreme rise in food prices and a rapid increase in hunger in third world countries.

That is the conclusion of a USDA report on the economic effects of the 'Farm to Fork strategy'. The report is entitled: "Economic and Food Security Impacts of Agricultural Input Reduction Under the European Union Green Deal's Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies".

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has calculated that agricultural income in the European Union will increase by 16% until 2030. That is if the strategy, which is part of the Green Deal, remains limited to Europe. Food prices may rise sharply with the policy, but farmers cannot benefit because the yield per hectare decreases. However, this scenario, in which the EU changes from a globally leading agricultural exporter to a closed agricultural economy, is not an obvious one. However, as a powerful trading bloc, the EU intends to impose requirements on food imports that prevent distortions of competition. This may result in a worldwide renewal process that offers agricultural entrepreneurs prospects. However, this renewal process can also lead to a sharp increase in the problems in the countries with the least food security.

Exploding food prices
The study calculates with 3 different scenarios: introduction limited to the European Union, worldwide introduction and finally a scenario in between the other scenarios. If the 'Farm to Fork strategy' is implemented worldwide, global production will fall by 11%, agricultural entrepreneurs' income worldwide will rise by several tens of percent and food prices worldwide will explode by 450%. This is calculated up to and including 2030. Worldwide, agricultural trade could decrease by many hundreds of billions of dollars due to the introduction of the new EU 'Farm to Fork strategy'. If the introduction is limited to the European Union, the effect on world trade in agricultural products is also limited. But if the introduction leads to a worldwide renewal, then the extreme figure of more than $1144 billion in loss of turnover appears.

Limitations of the study
In this report, the USDA calculates with a halving of the use of crop protection agents and antibiotics by 2030, 20% less fertilizer use and 10% less agricultural area in the European Union. The study does not take into account the effects on combating food waste and the greenhouse gas reductions that the strategy delivers. Nor has the effect of technical innovation as a result of the new European agricultural and food policy been taken into account.

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