News Climate
New varieties needed due to climate change
The agricultural sector faces a major challenge due to climate change. Rising temperatures are one of the main reasons for lower yields, according to scientists. In order to maintain yields and thus safeguard food security, the sector must respond to changing circumstances.
According to a new international study, led by Florian Zabel of the University of Munich, varieties adapted to the local situation can play an important role in this. In the study, the scientists defined 4 climate scenarios ranging from a global temperature increase of 1,4 degrees to 3,9 degrees at the end of this century.
Yields don't have to lag behind
If global warming remains within 1,5 degrees, as laid down in the Paris climate goals, an optimal yield can be achieved on 85% of the existing agricultural land with the current varieties. According to the model calculations, good results can be achieved in large parts of Europe, China and Russia, possibly with other varieties.
"Our results show that moderate temperature rises generally allow us to adapt well to climate change. Global yields could even increase by nearly 20% by the end of this century," Zabel said on the university's website.
40% unsuitable in worst-case scenario
"In the worst-case scenario, 40% of the agricultural area requires other varieties," according to Zabel. Important production areas for maize and wheat, for example, are also affected in that scenario. There are regions where varietal changes have little or no effect due to the expected drought, according to the study. This is the case, for example, in Texas, Kenya and parts of India and Brazil.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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