News Climate
Taking climate change into account when breeding
Climate change is not just negative. Potentially, crop yields can increase. In certain parts of the world, higher temperatures do lead to a higher disease pressure, while in other parts the pressure on the crops decreases.
Model calculations show that the yields of crops in the areas further from the equator increase due to the higher temperatures, according to new research by scientists from the University of Exeter (GB) and the University of Utrecht. In the tropics, the higher temperatures do not or hardly lead to an increase in yield, the scientists write in the in Nature published study.
Not only revenues increase
Due to global warming, the pathogens are also shifting. The impact of pathogens is decreasing in the tropical parts of the world. These are Brazil, countries in sub-Saharan Africa, India and Southeast Asia. At higher latitudes, the risk of plant diseases increases. Europe and China in particular run an increased risk, but the US is also not spared.
The researchers used existing information about minimum, optimal and maximum temperatures for the development of 80 pathogens. The current and future (period 2060-2081) yields of 12 major crops have been compiled on the basis of 3 crop growth models in 4 climate scenarios of the IPCC.
"Previous studies have already shown that disease and pests are moving away from the equator," said Professor Daniel Bebber on the university's site. “In this study, we have made a risk assessment for what we can expect in the coming decades. Our findings show that the higher yields of crops caused by climate change are partly offset by an increasing burden of crop protection. Rapid global spread of pathogens is probably through international trade and transportation. Diseases and pests almost certainly reach all parts of the planet and can survive and multiply there if conditions are right."
Attention to what's coming
"Breeders and agrochemical companies focus on specific diseases," says Professor Sarah Gurr. "In the UK, wheat breeders are trying to build in resistance to leaf spot and yellow and brown rust. But the threat of those diseases could change in no time."
Breeding is a long-term business. It is therefore important, according to the scientists, to think about resistances to diseases that have not yet been observed in the more northern areas. Little research has been done into many pathogens - especially those that are currently mainly found in the tropics. The researchers emphasize that it is important to invest in this now before the pathogens appear in the important growing areas.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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