News Rabobank
'2022 one of the toughest years in terms of inputs'
The availability and prices of crop protection products and fertilizers may become problematic in the coming season. That is what Rabobank analyst Wes Lefroy says in a new report that the bank publishes every two years. It is not only the fertilizer prices that farmers have to worry about, the availability and costs of crop protection are also an issue.
Rabobank publishes a report on the fertilizer market twice a year (Global Fertilizer Outlook)† The conclusions in the latest edition are not tender. The price levels of many fertilizers are at their highest level in a decade and are expected to remain at this level for the short to medium term. In addition, there are the logistical problems of delivering sufficient product on time.
2022 will be tough
Senior analyst Lefroy thinks the situation will last at least into the first quarter of 2022. For urea and phosphate fertilizers, for example. He calls 2022 one of the toughest and most challenging years for farmers in terms of inputs. Not only because of the 'fertiliser complex', but also because of the crop protection situation.
Glyphosate is mentioned as an example. The agent is then relatively cheap, 65% of the total use of crop protection agents belongs to this herbicide. The glyphosate produced in China has now risen by 75% in price, the bank writes. Its production is limited because the raw materials for it are not always sufficiently available.
Buy now for delivery security
Despite the current skyrocketing prices, Lefroy is calling on arable farmers in Australia – where he was interviewed – to rethink their sourcing policies now, with the expectation that prices will rise again. You also ensure that the products you order are actually delivered. Because the prices of grains and oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseed are at a high level, fertilizer prices are also estimated to remain high. Rabobank expects the prices of maize, soy and wheat to be above average until the third quarter of 2022. This keeps fertilizer prices afloat.
While the increased gas prices result in expensive nitrogen, there are other reasons for a high phosphate price. The highest since 2011. For example, China is exporting less because the government is putting the brakes on this. Rabobank even expects arable farmers worldwide to use less phosphate, because it is not enough, even with these high grain prices. Due to the logistical problems, the costs of transporting fertilizers have risen by about 10%.
Niels van der Boom
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