Confidence is gradually returning to the potato market. Both the physical quotes and the futures market are taking a step up. This does not mean that the developments surrounding corona have no influence on the potato market.
There is good demand for potatoes for short-term delivery. This is evident from, among other things, the PotatoNL quotation, where prices have remained the same or increased depending on the category. What is striking is the wide range in category 1 suitable for fries, which ranges from €13 to €20 per 100 kilos. In the other classes the differences between top and bottom are much smaller.
If we look at the cash settlement, it is striking that the Netherlands is out of step compared to the other EU-4 countries. The Dutch input has been considerably higher all season compared to Belgium, Germany and France and that difference has even grown somewhat in recent weeks. The average CS price this week is €14,70 per 100 kilos and the Dutch input is well above that at €17,10.
Prices are also on the rise on the futures market. Last Friday, November 26, the price closed at €18 per 100 kilos. This has now risen to €19,50 yesterday (Thursday December 2). The good demand on the physical market therefore appears to be spilling over into the futures market. That is remarkable, because it is often the other way around. The fact that the futures market does not rise further is most likely due to the lack of clarity surrounding the omikron variant. Uncertainty is generally something that markets do not like, as we have seen in recent weeks.
French fries sales remain good
Demand is declining somewhat in Northwestern Europe, but the fries are easy to sell on the world market. Now that sales of fries continue to be quite good according to various sources, confidence in the short term is increasing again. But corona remains hanging over the market like a sword of Damocles. Countries such as Germany and Austria are considering, or already have, a vaccination requirement. The hope is that public life can continue to some extent as a result. Last year we saw that extra measures were needed after the holidays to get the situation back under control. It remains to be seen whether that scenario will be repeated or whether policymakers have learned their lessons.