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Fierce reaction of agricultural markets to invasion of Russia

24 February 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are especially visible in the quotations for grains. Wheat on the Matif in particular made an exceptional jump shortly after the opening. In the first minutes after the opening after the opening, the price even rose by €340 per tonne.

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Compared to the opening, the wheat price on the Matif has fallen slightly again, but, at €319,25 per tonne for the March contract, there is still a strong increase. A plus of €32,25 or 11,24% compared to the closing price yesterday. The Matif quotations for maize and rapeseed - commodities in which Russia and Ukraine are also major players on the world market - also reacted strongly to the Russian invasion, albeit slightly less violently. At the time of writing, corn is trading at €288 per tonne 7,56% higher than the closing price. Rapeseed has increased by €44,75 to €786,25 per tonne. Grain prices are also rising on the American CBoT. Wheat is up 5,71%, corn 5,12% and soybeans 4,91%.

Zwarte Zee
The CME listing for wheat in the Black Sea region was on the rise yesterday as the market closed. Due to the big difference with the European and American quotations, there was extra interest. Most likely, this trend will not continue today. Russia has closed the Sea of ​​Azov to shipping and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether the Black Sea will remain open and safe for shipping. The Black Sea wheat may be attractively priced, but if you can't get the wheat to the destination you have little there has been mood among grain traders.

Source: CME Group

In contrast to the grain market, the potato futures market is in a downturn. The current exchange rate at the time of writing the April contract is €20,20 per 100 kilos. That is a decrease of €1 compared to the closing price. Possibly the predominant factor here is the fear of the loss of a sales market. The June contract has remained unchanged at €23 per 100 kilos. The potato futures market shows a plus for the new harvest. €19,20 per 100 kilos against €19 yesterday.

Russia and Ukraine are relatively small players in the sugar market and this is reflected in the trade. The Liffe listing in London shows a plus of 2,12% for the April contract. For the months of July to August, the increase is just over 1,7% at the time of writing this article.

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