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Analysis Grains & Commodities

Argentine harvest forecast boosts grain market

24 March 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Grain quotes on the Matif are still moving up. Wheat prices, on the other hand, were under some pressure on the CBoT. Corn and soy are on the rise again. Developments in Ukraine are a determining factor and the market is therefore reacting more strongly to developments in other areas.

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The wheat quotation on the Matif continues to increase. Yesterday the May contract closed on the stock exchange at €384,50 per tonne. That is an increase of €5,50 compared to yesterday. The contracts for the new harvest increased with small differences between the different months by more than €4 per tonne. The September contract stands at €346,75, decreasing to €325 per tonne for the May 2023 contract. The wheat quotation on the CBoT took a small step back and closed 1% lower. Corn and soy, on the other hand, closed higher on the CBoT.

Lower harvest expectations in Argentina
The trade assumes that demand for corn and soy from the US will increase. Argentina's grain exchange adjusted downwards the harvest forecast for the country yesterday (March 23). The cause of the new forecast is the drought that hit the country earlier this year. Such news has an immediate effect on prices in the current tense market. Argentina is the second largest exporter of corn, and a top player in soy.

De European Union yesterday announced measures to increase agricultural production. The EU feels compelled to intervene because of the likely loss of Ukrainian exports for a longer period of time. The EU is granting an exemption to cultivate fallow land for this year and there will be a financial support package that the agricultural sectors most affected by the war can claim.

Ukrainian agriculture minister resigns
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko has resigned, several sources have reported. However, the reason is still unknown. Earlier this week, Leshchenko announced that the area of ​​summer crops in Ukraine will probably be halved this year compared to the forecast before the invasion and that winter crops will also suffer significant damage.

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