Wheat prices on the Matif and CBoT closed at the highest level in two weeks. This is partly due to the war in Ukraine. Although the focus is also shifting towards developments in other regions. The Crop Progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture is one of them.
The May contract on the Matif in Paris rose to €11 per tonne on Monday (379,50 April). That is €6,75 higher than the closing quotation for the weekend and it is also the highest quotation in two weeks. The contracts for the new harvest are also on the rise. The September contract increased by €7,50 to €358,25 per tonne and the December contract increased to €351,50 per tonne. The contracts for the second half of the year are therefore creeping further and further towards the €350 per tonne limit. March-2023 stands at €348,25 per tonne and May-2023 at €346,50 per tonne.
On the CBoT in Chicago, the May contract price rose to $1.081,25 per bushel. That is converted about €366 per tonne. That is an increase of 2,8% compared to the previous closing quotation. The contracts for the new harvest have also increased by just under 3%.
Moderate expectation
Sowing of spring wheat and spring barley is ahead of the five-year average, the US Department of Agriculture reports. 6% of the planned area of wheat is in the ground, compared to 5% compared to the five-year average. For barley that is 11% versus 8%. The development of winter wheat has so far been the same as last year, but is slightly behind the average. On the reference date, 5% was in the ear, versus 6% in the average. Even more important is the condition. Of the winter wheat, 32% is given the status 'good' or 'excellent' and 36% 'poor' or 'very bad'. The five-year average shows a ratio of 53% 'good' or 'excellent' and 17% 'poor' or 'very bad'.
These numbers are a clear signal for lower wheat yields, analysts say. The hectare yields are partly lower, but there are also warnings that part of the acreage may not be harvested at all. Especially in extensive areas on the southern prairies - where people are used to low hectare yields - it is not worthwhile to harvest if drought persists. The costs for threshing (labour, fuel and machines) are then higher than the yields, despite the relatively high grain prices.