The fertilizer market has been at the same price level for some time, but KAS in particular now seems to have started the downward trend. This is not only due to the demand for fertilizer during this period. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty, because how far will the price fall?
In March, just before the spring work really started, the magical limit of €100 per 100 kilos was broken at KAS. This had everything to do with the explosive increase in gas prices and after the start of the war in Ukraine. This was followed by export bans on the substances required for certain fertilizers. The price is now dropping and farmers will soon be paying a price of approximately €70 per 100 kilos of KAS from companies such as Agrifirm and CZAV.
Less fertilizer deposited
The fact that fewer fertilizers have been used is something that is certain according to the fertilizer trading companies. They indicate that sales were clearly lower and that the months of April and May were also quieter than normal. The farmer has used alternatives, such as more animal manure, but there have certainly been cutbacks. Unfortunately, some farmers also had to pay the top price. Afterwards it turns out that too much was purchased at a sky-high price, but it is impossible to estimate how much was needed and what the gas price would do. "There was a lot of uncertainty, could we meet demand? The chain had to have enough product in the spring and a shortage would have been an even bigger disaster," reports an insider.
At the moment it is mainly KAS that is showing a decline in price. Other fertilizers decrease slightly or remain at the same price level. Potassium salt 60, for example, is still priced at approximately €63 per 100 kilos.
When to 'strike'?
Arable farmers appear to have already stocked up on most of the fertilizers for this summer. But the big question is when fertilizer prices will bottom out. When should you purchase? Normally, fertilizer prices are at their lowest level in the summer, because use is decreasing and production is still in full swing. As a result, there is now a lot of uncertainty. The last few months have shown how gas prices can fluctuate, making it difficult to determine the right time to purchase for the trade. According to fertilizer trader Triferto, current gas prices do not indicate that we are going back to the summer of 2020 or 2021, when the price was still below €30 per 100 kilos of KAS.