Analysis Arable
Almost all of Europe could use a rain shower
Drought is not only occurring in the Netherlands, but in several parts of Europe. This lowers the yield forecasts for winter crops in Europe, but is still slightly ahead of the five-year average. A significant amount of precipitation is necessary in the near future to maintain the current yield potential.
The weather in Europe has recently been characterized by drier conditions than usual. In addition, the temperature was also lower than usual in certain regions, which had an effect on the development of the crop. This is revealed in the May edition of the European Union's Mars bulletin.
Cereals but very average
Due to the mild winter and the relatively quick start of the spring, the cereals got off to a good start. In the meantime, the lack of precipitation has brought the yield forecasts down slightly, so that the cereals show only a minimal plus on the five-year average. The yield forecast for winter wheat is 5,7 tons per hectare and is 1,4% higher. Winter barley is also only 4,9% higher on the five-year average, at 1,0 tons. With regard to newly sown crops such as maize and spring barley, a prediction has also been made. The sowing went well in most cases, although in some cases drought, but especially the lower temperature, hindered development. However, due to the higher temperature from May, the young shoots have been able to recover well. According to the yield forecast, maize is therefore heading towards the same figure as the long-term average of 7,9 tons per hectare. The other summer crops also record a minimal plus.
Drought in Europe
In Western Europe, almost all countries have to deal with a serious precipitation deficit. This is not only due to less precipitation, but also the higher temperatures that especially Spain and France had to deal with. In most cases, this resulted in minimal damage to the crop and everything can recover well if there is precipitation in the coming period. However, the drought is critical in central France and the crops are also suffering in central Spain. A precipitation surplus has been measured in the south and east of Spain on the coast. This complicates the harvest of early potatoes, among other things. Italy finally received the rainfall it had been waiting for in April, but the current forecast will soon ease drought concerns.
In several countries in Eastern Europe, but also in Poland had a lower temperature for a long time accompanied by drought. The sowing campaign went well, but poor weather conditions slowed down the germination process and caused erratic emergence. However, the weather conditions have been much more positive for crop growth in this part of Europe since the second part of May.
Sugar beets and potatoes
The sowing and potato planting has only recently been completed, but a yield forecast is made based on the current state of the crop and the weather forecasts. The sugar beets had it difficult because of the cold at the start, but have managed to recover well after the growing weather in Western Europe.
The potato planting went according to plan. Farmers started planting in April after the temperature rose. Just like in the Netherlands, farmers who had the opportunity to irrigate made optimal use of this when drought came around the corner. Due to the latest weather forecast, especially the precipitation and higher temperatures, the potatoes are expected to increase by 5,9% compared to the five-year average to 35.9 tons per hectare, according to the yield forecast.
Jesse Torringa
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.
