Drought and heat are causing lower yield forecasts in several regions of Europe than previously forecast, according to the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission. Despite this, the summer crops do score above average, but precipitation is still badly needed.
Crops in Europe were above average until last May, after they survived the mild winter well and spring also turned out well for the crop in many cases. The persistent drought, combined with heat, has caused crops to become less flourishing in various parts of Europe. Particularly in South-Western Europe, but also in the area around the Baltic Sea, yield forecasts have been lowered in the June edition of the JRC-Mars Bulletin.
Grains are suffering
The yield forecasts are becoming increasingly representative as the harvest period approaches. The grain harvest is just around the corner and seems to be almost exactly at the five-year average with an average of 5,50 tons per hectare. However, this is lower than the forecast in May, when a yield of 5,60 tonnes per hectare was predicted by the JRC. This is mainly due to wheat, which at 5,56 tonnes per hectare is 1% below the five-year average. In contrast to wheat, the yield forecast for barley is just above the five-year average. Corn is also in line with other years, but this forecast is mainly based on historical trends as it is still very early in the growing season. Maize is in poor condition almost nowhere in Europe.
The fact that the wheat has been adjusted downwards has to do with the extreme drought and heat is the case in several areas, such as Spain, Italy and France, but also the south of Germany. This may also result in an even lower yield in the coming period, given the extreme heat that is already expected this week. In eastern Europe the temperature is a lot milder, but precipitation is also the determining factor. The month of May saw occasional rain showers, which means that extreme drought is not an issue now. However, this is not sufficient for the grains and yields do not increase.
Potatoes above average
The yield forecasts for summer crops, such as sugar beets, potatoes and soybeans, still have above-average yields according to the JRC. Due to the good growing conditions, especially the temperature and sun, the crops have been able to develop well from the start. Good returns are expected, especially in Western Europe, which are currently largely based on historical trends. For potatoes, the yield in Europe is 35,7 tons per hectare, 5,2% higher than the five-year average. Sugar beets are also doing well in Europe with an average yield forecast of 78,1 tons per hectare. That is 5,4% higher compared to the five-year average. In any case, the coming period with the heat will have a negative impact on yields. Especially if there is not enough precipitation in the subsequent period.