Drought threatens large parts of Europe

The European Commission's Joint Research Center (JRC) released these figures in a special drought report this week. Early this growing season, drought affected certain regions in Europe. In the winter months, on average, 19% less precipitation fell in Europe, especially in Southern Europe. Drier conditions than normal and the early periods of high temperatures in May and June are the reasons for the current situation, which can be called critical in view of the current weather forecast. Water reservoirs are extremely low, rivers are getting lower and crop yields will in any case be lower than previously expected.

Southern Europe hardest hit
The countries most affected by drought are Italy and Spain. Due to the lack of precipitation, it is record dry in the river area. A drought emergency has been declared in no fewer than five different regions. The same applies to Spain, where water reservoirs are well below the ten-year average. In the southern regions the deficit rises to more than 50%. The Cereal Traders Association (ACCOE) estimates that cereal production will fall by around 20% to 14,7 million tonnes this season due to heat and water scarcity. According to the agricultural news medium Asaja from Spain, farmers in the Extremadura region have sown 45% less corn than usual. Corn is irrigated there and given the water scarcity that already existed at the time, they decided to sow less corn. Last season there were still 42.000 hectares in Extremadura.

The south of France also belongs to the list of countries with extreme drought. Forest fires are prevalent in these countries this season. Drought is also increasing in Western and Central Europe, such as in Germany, Poland, but also in Croatia and Romania. Crop yields are declining rapidly here at the moment. Lower yields have been predicted in these areas for both winter and summer crops for a long time, the report showed June edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin of the European Commission.

The precipitation deficit will continue to increase until September, especially in Western Europe and the United Kingdom. Once again there will be no precipitation and above-average temperatures are in the offing. In terms of crop yields, these are far from improving and yields of crops such as potatoes may fall below the five-year average, as the drought situation is already critical in certain regions. An example is France, where the potato area increased slightly, but this increase is due to: the heat and drought is not reflected in the total revenue. It is not surprising that, according to the European Commission's drought monitor, 46% of European territory is at risk of being affected by drought.

5% driest years
The Netherlands is barely mentioned in the European Commission's special drought report. This has everything to do with the fact that the report mainly relies on data up to and including the beginning of July. The Netherlands has been characterized as dry, but only since the beginning of July has drought seriously started to appear again. Salinization is now occurring in the west of the Netherlands because saltwater from the sea flows back into the rivers. The water level of the rivers is too low due to the rainfall shortage. The first irrigation bans from surface water have also been reinstated in North Brabant since last week by the De Dommel water board. This week, the Rijn and IJssel water board did the same due to the extreme drought.

If we look at the prospects, it is not at all positive for the crops. There is currently plenty of irrigation going on, as can be seen from the farmers in the Netherlands Boerenbusiness crop tour and roughage tour. Potato growers already irrigate their potato plots for the fourth time. Also the dairy farmers cannot avoid irrigation.

If we look at the precipitation deficit in the Netherlands, 2022 is one of the 5% driest years since measurements were taken. At the time of writing, the average rainfall deficit is 207 millimeters and, with the current forecast, this will increase to 230 millimeters by the first week of September. That is still lower than the record year 1976 and the year that is still fresh in our minds, 2018. At that time the precipitation deficit was even around 260 millimeters. If we look per region in the Netherlands, it is striking that the precipitation deficit in the south is considerably higher than in the north. In Zeeland and Limburg the shortage amounts to more than 300 millimeters, while regions in the north have a shortage of 150 millimeters.