The markets are also heating up this month

A few millimeters of precipitation fell in the center of the Netherlands on Sunday. Especially along the Wadden coast, farmers were treated to a nice rain shower. There fell between 15 and almost 30 millimeters of precipitation. Below the line of Lelystad, the meter hangs between 0 and 2 millimeters. This also applies to Belgium and France. In Germany there was only significant rain in the middle, but it does not provide much relief.

Warm and dry again
Looking at the long-term forecast for precipitation and temperature, little relief can be expected in the next fourteen days. This week the mercury will rise again to temperatures around thirty degrees. Significant precipitation is not included. The thunderstorms, which you often see during warm periods in the summer, are also expected to stay away.

The consequences of persistent drought thus creep into arable crops such as potatoes and onions. Apart from a few days with extremely hot weather, we cannot speak of a real hot summer. However, a persistent lack of precipitation ensures that the precipitation deficit continues to increase steadily. According to figures from the KNMI, it is currently at 223 millimeters. This puts the line above that of the 5% driest years, but still below record years such as 2018 and 1976.

Major differences per region
Regional differences are large. July was very dry, especially in the south and southeast of the country. That also applies to the month before. Crops are kept going by frequent watering, but what every farmer notices is that the crops wear out faster than usual. At this rate, we can speak of a particularly early harvest, as has been the case with cereals. The north is the exception to this. There was still significant rainfall in July.

The picture is not much different in other European countries such as Belgium, France, Germany and Poland. It has been dry for weeks in a row and that is now being noticed. It is not without reason that the European JRC (Joint Research Committee) lowered the yield of all 'summer crops' such as maize, beets and potatoes in their July edition of the Mars report. Looking into the future is also difficult for meteorologists, but for now August will bring little change in this situation.

Drought is good for grain
For wheat, barley and other grains, the dry weather has been beneficial. The yields achieved in the south-west and the center of the Netherlands are favorable to arable farmers. Wheat yields above 10 tons are no exception, partly due to the high hectolitre weights this year. The harvest is over in many places before 1 August. CZAV estimates that about 85% of all grain is inside. Not all spring wheat is ripe, so the combines are not all ready yet.

In the middle of the Netherlands, the grain harvest is also well advanced after a good week. The last plots of winter wheat and spring wheat can probably be harvested this week. In the north of the Netherlands, the harvest started quietly in the second half of last week. This means that the differences in harvest time this year are quite large between the different areas. Despite the fact that the crop development is about two weeks later, the first sounds for yield and quality are also good. With nice and stable weather in the forecast, harvesting can also take place here without much stress.

Potato futures market smoothly rises above €25
That stress is more apparent for the potato and onion crops. Friday was on the potato futures market the way up has already clearly started with a lock at € 24,90 per 100 kilos. With the precipitation figures – or rather the lack of them in mind – the market effortlessly moved above the €25 level on Monday morning. At the end of the morning, the April 2023 contract is now at €26,30. That it is happening at this moment is important because the market is in the process of choosing a direction that usually determines the further course of the season.

The course of the temperature – with possible summer heat again next week – and a lack of precipitation now determine the further course. It puts the potato market firmly in the saddle, but that also applies to onions, for example. This month the pounds should grow. It is therefore not only a crucial moment for the crop, but also for the market and price formation.