Drought in England breaks 1976 records

This specifically concerns the situation in England and not the United Kingdom, which also includes Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Especially in the east and south-east, the drought is taking extreme forms in England. In comparison: In Scotland, 98% of the average amount of precipitation fell in July and there is little to worry about. At the same time Kent England has been the driest month since 1935. Regionally, it has been surpassed with the driest July since measurements began in 1836.

Precipitation shortage breaks record
The winter in England has been relatively dry. Only at the beginning of this year was it a bit wetter than usual. A precipitation deficit was measured from the end of March and that deficit is now below the record year of 1976. At the beginning of August the counter stood at 320 millimeters, versus 350 millimeters now. On average, the precipitation deficit at the beginning of August is 175 millimeters. 1975 was also dry, which caused major problems a year later.

Both 1976 and 2022 have been hot – so far at least. The former had no less than 16 consecutive days with temperatures above 30 degrees. The record was 35,6 degrees. That record was broken on July 19 with a temperature of 40,3 degrees in eastern England. Never before has such a high temperature been measured on the island by the Met Office. The average for the whole of July is 23,5 degrees, which is 2,3 degrees more than average.

No restrictions for irrigation
However, specialists warn that the two years should not be compared just like that. The water management system in England has improved considerably in 46 years, which means that the impact on agriculture, for example, is smaller. Sufficient irrigation water was available on many farms last winter. As a rule, grains and rapeseed are hardly irrigated in England. The largest irrigated crop is potatoes. For the time being, there are no restrictions for irrigating crops.

Looking at the yields of the grains and rapeseed, many arable farmers have few reasons to complain. Just like in the Netherlands, they can simply be called good. On the clay soils in the east, the breadbasket of the United Kingdom, the crops have grown well even in low rainfall. This makes both countries an exception in Europe, where widespread drought does result in fewer kilos.

Problems only begin
After a lightning-fast grain harvest – during which a striking number of wildfires occurred and crops were also lost – the problems for arable farmers are only now beginning. The tillage is difficult to carry out because of the hard soil. Rapeseed usually goes into the ground at the beginning of August, but that gamble is simply too big now. Arable farmers like to pre-process so that black can germinate and sow wheat or barley in a month's time. Germs are rare under the current conditions. This means a difficult start to the new season is expected.

The problems are greater for crops such as potatoes, onions, carrots, but also maize and sugar beet. The vegetable crops mentioned are actually almost all grown on irrigated land, but that is not the case for beets and maize. That certainly costs pounds. Corn is even being chopped during this period. British Sugar, meanwhile, has to puzzle over the start of the campaign and how they will soon be able to have a sufficient supply of sugar beet.

Potato harvest historically small
That too the potato harvest will be considerably smaller than average, is clear. What does not help is a considerably reduced acreage of about 109.000 hectares. Five years ago it was 128.000 hectares and ten years ago almost 150.000 hectares. Insiders estimate that the yield is just above 4,5 million tons, although 4 million tons is theoretically possible. Given the current situation, this is not inconceivable.

About 40% of all potatoes are grown in the east of England. A quarter in Scotland and the rest mainly in the west (Wales) and southwest. The most important part is therefore exactly in the driest part of the country, although there are regional differences. Nevertheless, it remains calm on the British potato market, which is almost completely closed with contracts. Only the fish & chips sector is traditionally a free market. Growers are very reluctant to sell, because they first want to know what the yield will be. Buyers are also hesitant. Belgium and the Netherlands are the two major suppliers of potato products to the United Kingdom, the largest buyer on continental Europe. A negative impact on the British potato harvest results in more sales opportunities for the EU4.