Despite the Russian invasion and difficulties that Ukrainian farmers are struggling with, they are doing everything they can to harvest again next year. The yields of last season are disappointing as expected. In addition, a large part of the grain harvest has fallen into Russian hands.
Bad weather conditions and low temperatures are currently hitting parts of Ukraine. This hinders both the last sowing before 2023 and the harvest of maize, the last crop this season. According to the latest figures from the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), only 60% of the sown area has been harvested so far. For the coming season, Ukraine must take into account even lower grain production, as a result of the Russian invasion, but unfavorable weather conditions also had an influence. The grains that were sown early were able to benefit from the precipitation.
Fewer winter grains in 2023
Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture shows that 1 million hectares of winter grains have been sown until December 4,5. Of this, 3,8 million hectares of winter wheat have been sown. In 2021, the total area of winter grains was still 6,2 million hectares. Ultimately, only 4,6 million hectares could be harvested because a large area in the east is occupied by Russian troops. The wheat harvest therefore amounted to 19 million tons, compared to 33 million tons in 2021. 1 million hectares of winter rapeseed have also been sown. Last year that was 1,3 million hectares.
But just sowing the crops is not enough, as it turned out last season. The availability of fuel, crop protection products, fertilizers and personnel are also of great importance. This applies to almost all of Ukraine and not just the regions that were temporarily under the control of Russian troops or bordered on them. Destruction and landmines also cause many problems in several regions. Finally, everything has to be paid for. Last season the winter grains had already been sown before the Russian invasion and so there were also the necessary supplies of crop protection and fertilizers. This all has to be paid for this season too, while farmers have harvested fewer tons and could not sell everything.
6 million tons of grain in occupied territory
In the areas under the control of Russian troops last summer, the space agency NASA has calculated that Ukraine lost 6 million tons of wheat. This is evident from a study using satellite images from NASA's food security and agriculture program. Based on texture and color changes in a certain time series, the program detects the yield and when it was harvested. About 88% of the planted area was harvested, with crops in the frontline region barely harvested.
The big question is what happened to the yield of wheat and other grains. It is unclear what has been harvested by the Ukrainian farmer in occupied territory and what has not. It is most likely that some of the grain was exported to countries such as Libya and Iran. It is only difficult to estimate the volumes because the origin is unclear. Russia itself denies having stolen grain.
Plenty of potatoes
Ukraine is one of the largest grain producing countries in the world, and this also applies to potato cultivation. It is the fifth largest producer of potatoes in the world. In recent years the average yield has been 4 million tons, but only 20 hectares are cultivated commercially and domestic consumption is only 55.000 million tons. The majority is therefore grown locally and goes into animal feed or is not used. The ministry therefore does not expect a shortage of potatoes. However, 4 tons of potatoes were still imported in 2020.
According to the latest figures, almost all of the sugar beets have also been harvested in the country. The total yield is estimated at 8,6 million tons of sugar beets and was grown on almost 200.000 hectares. The yield is not far from what was harvested during the previous campaign, which was 9,2 million tons.