Sugar prices in London and New York have shot up since September 16. Forecasts for the harvest in the largest sugar country Brazil have been revised downwards. For Europe, the hectare yield for sugar beets has been corrected upwards.
The listing in New York was $16 on September 422,85 and in London the equivalent of $523 per ton of sugar. On September 24, sugar in New York is at $497,14 per ton and in London at $584,50 per ton. A considerable increase, with a small weakening on the last day.
Ukraine export figures
Ukraine exported 691.800 tons of sugar in the 2023/24 season, which ran from September to August, according to figures from Ukrainian company Ukrsugar. 77% was destined for Europe and 23% for other markets. Italy was the largest importer, with 19% of the total volume going to Europe. Bulgaria came in second with 18% and Hungary accounted for 14%.
In the latest JRC Mars bulletin, published yesterday, the expected hectare yield of sugar beet in the European Union for 2024 has been increased to 74,7 tonnes per hectare. In August, it was still expected to be 73,4 per hectare. This is partly due to favourable weather conditions in parts of Western Europe. The expected yield of sugar beet is higher than the five-year average of 73,1 tonnes per hectare.
Lower harvest forecast for Brazil
Several parties expect a smaller harvest in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, which has an impact on sentiment in the market. Among others, the Brazilian government agency Conab has lowered its production forecast for Brazil and market bureau Czarnikow did the same for world production. Just before the weekend, the forecast for Brazil from Wilmar, which produces sugar, among other things, was added. Wilmar has lowered its forecast for sugar production, partly as a result of prolonged drought and the fires at the end of August. The food giant adds that weather conditions may improve in October, but that it is unlikely that this will have any effect on the current harvest.
The consequences of fires in Brazil are estimated to be high by major parties. In a webcast on YouTube, the CEO of the Brazilian SCA Brasil - Martinho Ono - estimates the number of hectares affected in the most important production region in recent months at 400.000. Wilmar talks about 450.000 hectares.
Less reed processed
Last week, the Brazilian sugar cane association Unica reported that in the second half of August, the main production region processed 3,3% less sugar cane. Sugar production in the second half of August was 3,25 million tons, 6% lower than in the same period last year. Total sugar production since the beginning of the season was 3,9% higher (27,17 million tons in total).