Cereals remain by far the most important crops for European arable farmers. If you look at the development in the whole of Europe, the cultivation of potatoes is under pressure. Zooming in on the Northwest, it is a different story. This also applies to onions, where there are sometimes considerable differences per country.
The traditional European crop plan, to the extent that it exists, is still mainly filled with grains. And then especially (winter) wheat and barley. The interest in oilseeds, especially rapeseed, is clearly somewhat less. Shortly after the war in Ukraine, a severe price spike caused a lot more rapeseed cultivation. That situation is back to the old one, although the area of 5,9 million hectares is still slightly above the five-year average. Compared to last year, 200.000 hectares have been added.
The main conclusions in this analysis:
More grain
According to the European Commission, 50,3 million hectares of cereals were sown in the EU this year. This is an increase of 2,5% compared to the 49 million hectares last year. More than 42% of this total – good for 21,17 million hectares – is wheat. This is followed by barley with 10,29 million hectares. A fifth of the total cereals. In third place is grain maize with 8,77 million hectares. These three crops together account for 80% of the total cereals area.
In 2016, more than 57 million hectares of grain were still grown. In almost ten years, European grain cultivation has shrunk by 12%. The shrinkage is particularly noticeable in large grain-producing countries such as France and Germany. In Germany, the area decreased from 6,3 to 5,7 million hectares, in France from 9,5 to 8,5 million hectares. Spain also saw a significant decrease in the area. In contrast, there are countries such as Poland and Romania, where the grain area remained relatively stable.
protein crops
The reason for this shrinkage has several causes. To start with, agricultural land is being withdrawn from the sector. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), this amounts to more than 108.000 hectares per year. Urbanisation is an important cause, but also withdrawal due to nature development such as planting forests. The new CAP has a major impact on the construction plans, especially in grain-rich areas. Last year, the area of protein crops amounted to 6,4 million hectares, while in 2000 this was 'only' 750.000 hectares. According to the European Commission, the growth is not over yet. In 2027, protein crops must cover more than 7 million hectares.
The cultivation of soybeans (1,15 million hectares) is increasing the most in Europe. In any case, it is increasingly important for farmers in Southern and Central Europe to grow drought- and heat-resistant crops. In addition to soybeans, the cultivation of sunflowers is also growing.
Fewer European potatoes
Arable farmers in Western European countries are increasingly looking for a cash crop. In Germany and France, it is mainly consumption potatoes that can offer this. Across the board, a decrease in the potato area is visible, but this includes the strongly reduced starch cultivation. Due to climate change, it is no longer possible to grow potatoes profitably everywhere. In 2016, 1,69 million hectares of potatoes were grown in the EU. Last year, this was 1,35 million hectares (-340.000 hectares). Good for more than 20% shrinkage. The largest shrinkage is in Poland with more than 300.000 hectares. Spain is also struggling with decreasing areas as a result of heat and drought.
Germany, France and Belgium are the exceptions to the rule. Due to the focus of the processing industry and export, the potato sector here has been piling growth upon growth, for ten years now. In the meantime, almost all potatoes for the coming harvest year are in the ground. Exact figures are still lacking regarding the area. Prior to the growing season, insiders expected another significant increase. That was before the market experienced a sharp price drop in early February and processors who scaled back their contract volumes.
Growth tempered
It is extremely difficult to make a sound statement regarding the area. Where previously the EU-4 was expected to grow by 5% to sometimes well over 10%, the mood has now been considerably tempered. In mid-April, the French Ministry of Agriculture even indicated that the area in their country will shrink, which is very exceptional given the general development (more processing capacity). Insiders therefore expect a maximum growth of 5% for that country. In total, the area increase in the EU-4 will probably amount to 3% to a maximum of 5% for consumption, seed potatoes and starch.
Based on 3%, the area will reach 792.600 hectares, which is a new record, breaking the 769.510 hectares of the previous harvest year. A wildcard remains the cultivation of starch potatoes. It has been hit hard in recent years, especially in France, but is now recovering somewhat with government support. The competition between starch and consumption or flakes is also noticeable in Germany. The market for starch products is healthy, which is why factories in Germany, Poland and France are looking to expand. Seed potatoes are also expanding steadily in Western Europe.
Capricious onion area
The development of the onion area shows a mixed picture. The trend is downward across the EU. From almost 180.000 hectares in 2016 to over 170.000 hectares in 2024. This development is not linear. In 2019, cultivation peaked at 187.120 hectares, only to drop back to just 105.000 hectares three years later. Clear shifts are visible at country level. Germany saw the area increase from 13.500 to over 20.000 hectares in that period, France from 13.000 to 19.500 hectares. The Netherlands expanded considerably: from 25.000 hectares of seed onions in 2016 to 38.330 hectares in 2024. This makes the Netherlands the second onion country in Europe, behind France.
Just like the onion market, the area development is also erratic. An unfavourable cultivation climate with more weather extremes and a difficult sales market are important ingredients. In Spain, the area has remained virtually stable in the last ten years, around 25.500 hectares. At the same time, countries such as Poland and Romania have shown a slight decrease, which contributes to the overall downward trend in the European total. For the Netherlands, estimates vary somewhat, from slight shrinkage to slight growth. The availability of seed in particular has limited the possibilities for expansion.
A shift in cultivation to Northern European countries is not very clearly visible. In Scandinavian countries the area is very modest and no more than a few thousand hectares. The onions are mainly for local consumption. In (Northern) Netherlands and Germany the largest increase can be seen, driven by potentially attractive balances.
Beet cultivation corrected
The sugar beet area in the European Union shows a generally stable trend and reached 2024 million hectares in 1,6. There are larger differences at country level. In Germany, the area grew from 334.500 hectares in 2016 to over 437.000 hectares in 2024. Poland saw a similar increase: from 203.500 hectares in 2016 to almost 278.000 hectares in 2024. The area also increased in the Netherlands, from 70.700 hectares to 87.600 hectares. This year, Cosun Beet Company reduced the allocation percentage from 115% to 100%, resulting in an area correction. In France, the area fell from almost 486.000 hectares in 2016 to 380.000 hectares in 2024. In Spain, the area initially stabilised at around 25.000 hectares, but the country saw a significant increase in area to 2024 hectares in 45.000.
In the major European sugar beet countries, a correction is expected for this cultivation year. After a difficult sugar market and more competition from Ukrainian imports, all beet processors have focused on fewer hectares. The French Tereos group, one of the world's largest sugar producers, estimates the European area to be 9% smaller this year. In addition, factories are increasingly closing in France, the Czech Republic and Austria, among others.
Drawing conclusions is not easy
Drawing hard conclusions about the area movements in Europe is not always easy. The area under cereals increased this year, but that is largely due to the favourable conditions for sowing last autumn. This also applies to rapeseed. The common agricultural policy has had a major impact on the crop plan of the European farmer for much longer, which mainly consists of cereals. In most cases, this now also includes a portion of protein crops, such as soybeans or field beans.
One of the most important factors is perhaps the withdrawal of agricultural land. Whether more land becomes available for arable crops due to a decrease in animal numbers is difficult to substantiate numerically. Moreover, not all land is suitable for arable farming. In North-West Europe, more and more companies are seeking refuge in cash crops as consumption potatoes or onions. That is not possible everywhere, simply due to the lack of knowledge, good quality soil, irrigation and extreme weather. There, more attention is paid to robust crops, such as sunflowers, that can withstand a blow.