Disaster scenario or not: doubts about the impact of drought

The drought index of the Belgian meteorological institute KMI is now dark brown from the drought. Not so strange, since March only 27,8 millimeters fell at the measuring station Ukkel. Considerably less than the 106 millimeters that is average for this part of Flanders. In 132 years of Belgian history it has never been so dry. In addition, it has never been so sunny in our southern neighbors. A situation that is comparable for many parts of the Netherlands.

Irrigation ban
The extent to which this impacts agriculture, and in particular vegetable cultivation, depends on several factors. Many companies can irrigate, but groundwater extraction bans are making this impossible in more and more places. Supplying water is a costly affair and most growers do not have a water basin. A week ago, some parts of Flanders were treated to thunderstorms, but these were very local.

Research institute Viaverda is one of the parties that is already sounding the alarm about the drought. If it continues in May and June, it will irrevocably damage industrial vegetables. It is not too late for the later crops, they have time to recover, but early potatoes are also affected, it is said. Vegetable growers association Vegras also finds the situation worrying. Especially for the first crops that are now being harvested, but also for newly planted vegetables. 

However, not everyone believes that drought damage is irreversible. The Boerenbond advocacy group does not yet call the situation worrying, because it is still relatively early in the growing season. However, it does acknowledge that a crucial moment has arrived. Rain must fall in the coming weeks to accommodate the crops. 

Yields are declining
It is already the third time in six years that Belgian farmers are struggling with a major rainfall deficit. It was also very dry in 2020 and 2022. "In the last seven years, the yield of peas, spinach and beans, among other things, has decreased by 20%," Ardo director Tijl Goens told the newspaper De Tijd. The large Belgian vegetable processor cannot yet say what the ultimate impact will be, but it is clear that yield and quality will be affected.

If you cross the border in the North or South, the situation is not much better. In the southwest of the Netherlands in particular, it has also been very dry for a long time. In Northern France, the situation is similar. The Nord and Pas-de-Calais departments have been under a drought alert since February. Since February 1, only 62 millimeters fell, which is only half of what fell in the spring of 1976. In the Hauts-de-France department, the situation is not much better. Farmers expect a minimum of 10% to 15% loss of yield at the moment.

Weather change coming
There is a good chance that significant precipitation will fall in Western Europe at the end of May. That a change is coming, that much is clear. A change in the wind direction, from north to west, will ensure that we will have changeable weather in the last week of May. How much rain this brings depends on which model and which weather prophet you follow. It varies from 20 to 50 millimeters over seven days. It looks like slightly less precipitation will fall in the coastal areas than further inland.

This week we will first have to deal with high(er) temperatures during the day, again above 20 degrees, and a bit colder at night. Night frost cannot be ruled out. Polish farmers can tell you all about that. Last weekend the mercury dropped to -3 at night in the north of the country, which mainly causes a lot of damage to rapeseed crops. The rapeseed has almost finished flowering and is busy forming seeds. A combination of drought and frost ensures that the pods are not filled properly or even shed. In extreme cases, farmers have already ploughed up plots and sown corn.