Weather models hint at a hot summer

The weather models show a somewhat diverse picture, with still quite a bit of uncertainty. After a changeable start to June, there is a chance that temperatures will rise considerably. If you go towards Central Europe, you will find values ​​of up to 30 degrees. This is also the case in Southern Europe. Depending on which way the wind blows, that summer heat can also come this way.

Precipitation
In the Netherlands, significant rainfall fell in most places at the end of May. The coastal areas finally got water again after months of severe drought. Between 25 and 40 millimeters fell nationwide throughout May. On average, that is 60 millimeters. In the short term, that provides relief, although the soil can take a lot. It may stop the irrigation reels for a while, but that is short-lived. The top layer of the soil became moist, but in deeper layers it remains dry. In addition, evaporation is high due to the crops, which are now growing strongly.

In Belgium, and especially West Flanders, farmers were less fortunate. May was dry and remained dry. The further you go to the (south)east, the more precipitation fell. This has now become problematic for various crops. Vegetable crops in particular are affected, actually since the moment of sowing. In extreme cases, especially when irrigation is not possible, they have to be abandoned or the yields are considerably lower.

Persistent drought
Across the border to Northern France, the situation is not much better. There too, many departments have been stuck in a persistent drought for months. Much less precipitation fell on Ascension Day than in Belgium. Sometimes only a few millimeters, on the already very dry ground. This week there will be a bit more, but then the dry weather combined with high temperatures will return.

In Germany, the picture is similar, although the southwest of the country did have considerable precipitation last month. Last weekend, there was even severe weather locally, resulting in flooding. The entire north, roughly from the Dutch border to Hannover, Leipzig and the border with the Czech Republic, is extremely dry. Only on the Baltic coast did some rain fall.

Dry summer?
As mentioned, the weather models indicate a warm and dry summer, under the influence of a persistent high-pressure area that has been present all spring. This is the case everywhere in northwestern Europe. Meteorologists who dare to look further see, for example in the long-term model of the ECMWF, an exceptionally warm and dry type of weather for the entire summer. The uncertainty of this statement is very great, but general media are full of this conclusion.

Surprisingly enough, the weather has had little effect on the agricultural produce markets so far. The potato market is in such a slump that temperature and precipitation figures have no grip on it. There is also a lack of speculators who dare to take a position. The trade in onion sets is lively and many growers can irrigate to keep the crop going. The large number of hours of sunshine has ensured that the crops have developed quickly, despite a lack of moisture. The root system is therefore well developed.

Few stems and tubers
In the development phase, crops such as potatoes can do with little rainfall. Now that tuber formation has started, that is changing. The early potatoes have a head start, but important weeks have arrived for the main harvest. In many places, a low number of stems is also reported. Viaverda, the Belgian research institute, mentions top shoot dominance in late varieties such as Fontane as a problem. The seed potatoes were quickly planted in the ground after delivery, with the tubers still relatively young. Only one stem and few tubers are the result, which can negatively affect the yield, even when significant rain does arrive later.

A warm weather type also brings with it an increased chance of sultry days and the formation of thunderstorms. Last weekend, North and Central Limburg were already treated to this, with large amounts of precipitation and also hail as a result. In Germany, it also came to severe weather. Although very local in nature, it can cause damage to crops, especially when hail also falls.