Global sugar prices are in a downward trend, with prices in London and New York down sharply year-on-year. This is due to high supply expectations. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts an increase in global sugar production for 2025/26. Cosun also expects a higher sugar yield – despite a smaller acreage. However, early harvest dates from Brazil and production problems in India paint a different picture.
Sugar prices continue to fall, both in London and New York. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in London, the benchmark white sugar closed at $12 per tonne on June 466,30. This is up 0,65% from the previous week, but down 15,95% compared to last year. On the same date, the raw sugar benchmark in New York closed at $358,69 per tonne, down 1,81% on a weekly basis and 14,82% on a year-on-year basis.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Sugar Price Index shows a similar trend, down 2,6% month-on-month to an average of 109,4 points in May. This continued price weakness is largely driven by expectations that the global sugar surplus will increase. On May 22, the USDA forecast a 4,7% increase in global sugar production to 189,3 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season on an annual basis.
Smaller beet area, higher yield
Cosun Beet Company reported last week that the beet area this year will be 5% lower than last year. But due to an above-average yield (13,5 tonnes per hectare) thanks to the early spring, sugar production is higher than in 2024. Last year, the harvest was disappointing due to the wet growing season.
In Germany, the glasswing cicada is reported to be on the rise. In southern Germany, this creature is causing major damage to sugar beets (up to a quarter yield loss) and this is now also being reported more often in the north and east of the country. Cosun and the IRS are keeping a close eye on the diseases SBR and RTD and the cicadas that transmit these diseases this season. Growers who see suspicious spots in their plot are called upon to report this to Cosun or their cultivation supervisor.
Mixed signals from Brazil
The USDA expects Brazil to be a major contributor to the increase in sugar production, with expected production of 44,7 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 2,3% from a year earlier.
Early seasonal data from Brazil paints a different picture. According to Unica, the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Observatory, the sugarcane harvest as of May 16 is down 20,24% year-on-year to 153,43 million tons. Sugar production fell even more, down 22,68% to 7,98 million tons, with the largest declines reported in the state of São Paulo.
In addition, a stronger Brazilian real is putting additional upward pressure on prices, as it worsens export competition. According to the Brazilian Foreign Trade Administration (Fedex), sugar exports fell to 2,26 million tons in May, a 19,6% decline from a year earlier. Export prices also fell by 10,4%, leading to a 28% drop in export earnings, which amounted to $1 billion (FOB value).
India expects production growth
India is also forecast to see future supply increases, despite current production issues. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India expects production to reach 2025 million tonnes in 26/35, up 19% from the previous year.
On the other hand, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has forecast a 7% annual decline for the current season, taking India’s sugar production to 2024 million tonnes in 25/29,5 – the lowest level in five years.