Sugar prices on the world market are under pressure. A somewhat weak demand and higher yield forecast do the market little good. You would think that European sugar beet growers and processors have already factored in a somewhat lower demand if we look at the provisional area figures.
For the 2025/26 season, trading house Czarnikow expects a surplus of 7,5 million tonnes on the global sugar balance. If this is actually achieved, it would be the largest surplus between production and consumption in eight years.
The increase is not entirely unexpected. A month ago, the USDA estimated global sugar production at a record 189,3 million tons. Compared to last season, the harvest is almost 5% larger. The USDA estimates the final stock of sugar at 41,2 million tons. This means that the estimated final stock is 7,5% larger than a year earlier.
Smaller area
The growth in sugar production is not coming from Europe, according to data from the European sugar consultation that took place last week. In Germany, the largest beet-growing country in the EU, the area of sugar beets will shrink by 12% from 391.400 hectares in 2024 to 345.200 hectares, according to provisional area figures. In the two other sugar majors of the EU, the decrease in area is less significant. In France, the area will shrink by 3% from 355.300 to 343.900 hectares. Polish beet growers have sown 258.900 hectares of beets this season, compared to 274.300 hectares a year earlier, or a decrease of almost 6%. The total beet area in the EU is 10,6% smaller, according to the European Commission. According to provisional data, a total of 1,35 million hectares of beets have been sown, compared to 1,51 million hectares last season.
A reduction in the area is not illogical given the price development on the sugar market last year. The average sugar price on the European market fell to the lowest level in about 2,5 years.
Things are no better on the futures markets in London and New York. In fact, sugar prices there are hovering around levels last seen in 2021.