Sugar prices are recovering from their lows early last week. However, there are no signs of rising prices this season. Production estimates are rising, while consumption expectations are being revised downward.
The European sugar beet campaigns have started earlier than in previous years. This applies not only to the Netherlands; beet supplies also began earlier in neighboring countries. Most countries issued higher yield forecasts compared to previous months at the monthly meeting of the Sugar Committee.
The yield forecast for the Netherlands has been raised to 86,6 tons per hectare. Harvest estimates have also been revised upwards for Germany (74,8 tons), Belgium (88,1 tons), Poland (69,6 tons), and Italy (68,5 tons). France is the only major sugar producer to have lowered its forecast to 78,5 tons per hectare.
The higher yield forecasts will partially offset this year's reduction in area. On a total area of 1,36 million hectares, production of 15,4 million tons is expected, based on a sugar yield of 11,3 tons per hectare. This means sugar production in the EU-27 is around 1 million tons (6%) lower than last season.
Shortage or surplus
Sugar trader Czarnikow expects global sugar production to reach 185,3 million tons in 2025/26. This is the second-highest production ever. In 2017-2018, 194 million tons of sugar were produced. According to the trader, sugar consumption will drop to 177,8 million tons, creating a sugar surplus of approximately 7,4 million tons.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) currently believes there will be a sugar shortage. The organization estimates sugar production in 2025-2026 at 180,6 million tons (+5,4 million tons). According to ISO, consumption will increase by almost 0,8 million tons to 180,8 million tons. This will result in a sugar shortage of 0,2 million tons. This shortage is considerably smaller than the 4,9 million tons of last season.
On the London futures market, the price rose to $468,3 per tonne on the last day of September. This puts the price almost 4% above the low of September 22nd ($451 per tonne). In New York, the transition to a new month temporarily halts the price increase that began last week. During that period, the price rose by more than $1 to around $16,5 per 100 pounds.