The potato sector in Northwest Europe is at a turning point. For years, the sector grew based on scale, exports, and low costs. But that successful formula is buckling under pressure from stagnating sales, competition, climate, regulations, and societal expectations. In the next ten years, the focus will no longer be on more tons, but on better tons. Moreover, shared responsibility within the supply chain is needed, with risks being more effectively distributed.
According to a future outlook by BNP Paribas Fortis, the potato sector is facing a strategic reorientation. Climate change, rising costs, and stricter environmental standards are forcing growers and processors to find a new balance between profitability, sustainability, and collaboration. "The world isn't changing through growth for its own sake, but through meaningful growth," says Jan de Keyser, Head of Agri & Food at BNP Paribas Fortis. "That's where the true strength of Northwest Europe lies."
De Keyser points out that the turbulence in the potato market—exacerbated by the public debate about power dynamics—exposes a deeper problem. He cites a Belgian TV documentary that portrays farmers as slaves to the industry. "The contracts were once designed for a stable world, but that world no longer exists. We need to move towards multi-year contracts with objective parameters, in which risks are shared."
According to De Keyser, the crisis that hit the potato market this spring is an excellent opportunity to change course in the potato sector. To drive change, BNP Paribas Fortis has conducted a strategic outlook covering the period 2026 to 2035.
Three scenarios
As befits a bank, three scenarios are being presented. The so-called base scenario assumes controlled growth of 3% to 4% per year, with innovation and discipline as prerequisites. In this scenario, Europe remains the market leader in French fry exports, but will face increased competition from other regions. Contract prices will follow inflation, and margins will remain stable.
However, with technological advances, an optimistic scenario is also feasible, in which new techniques are used to develop new varieties and data-driven supply chains reduce costs by 5% to 7%. By taking the lead in sustainability, Europe can improve its margins, De Keyser believes.
Just as it does when providing financing, the bank also considers a pessimistic scenario. The sector remains mired in overcapacity and climate stress, and excessively rapid capacity expansion is further squeezing margins. This threatens an exit for companies that operate insufficiently efficiently.
If the sector continues at its current pace, it risks a creeping loss of its European lead. "We can't grow faster forever," says De Keyser. "It's time to grow smarter: better, more sustainably, and with greater respect for the soil and the environment."
The sector must therefore transition from volume to resilience, from growth to sustainability, and from factory to ecosystem. "Not more, but better tons," De Keyser summarizes. "That's the only way to a future-proof potato sector."
Medium term
De Keyser hopes the report will encourage farmers to think about the medium term, regardless of current events. He also hopes that processors will rethink their contracts. This involves considering environmental factors and preconditions from a broader perspective. Third, he mentions the need for political policy to pay sufficient attention to sustainability and a sufficient economic perspective.
"The transition in the potato chain is not a threat, but an opportunity," De Keyser emphasizes. "Those who take the step toward innovation, sustainability, and partnership today will be tomorrow's winners. The potato sector has always shown its willingness to move forward; now is the time to choose a new direction."