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Sharp decline in arable farming income after strong years
Arable farmers' incomes will be significantly lower in the 2025 harvest year than in previous years. According to the latest income forecast from Wageningen Social & Economic Research, the average farm income will fall to approximately €60.000 per unpaid annual work unit (AU). This is €24.000 lower than in 2024 and approximately €32.000 lower than the average for 2020 through 2024.
The main cause of the drop in income lies in crop prices. Due to favorable growing conditions in Northwest Europe and other major production areas, yields per hectare for most crops are high. This ample supply is putting pressure on prices. The price drop is particularly noticeable for table potatoes, grains, and sugar beets.
For table potatoes, a price of approximately 35% lower is expected for the 2025 harvest year. Processors have sufficient potatoes under contract, while the free-range segment is struggling with a large supply. Free-range potatoes are being sold at significantly lower prices or even ending up in the animal feed chain. Seed potato prices are also under pressure due to lower demand after the exceptionally strong price year of 2024.
Grain and sugar beets under pressure
Grain prices have also fallen sharply in 2025. On average, the price level is more than 10% lower than last year, despite good yields per hectare. The downward trend for sugar beets is also continuing: after an earlier price drop, a lower payout price is again being calculated for the 2025 harvest year. Furthermore, Cosun Beet Company has announced a 10% reduction in allocations for regular deliveries in the coming year, creating additional uncertainty for growers.
Costs slightly up
On the cost side, there's no significant relief. On the contrary: input costs have risen slightly across the board, with the exception of energy. Crop protection products, machinery, buildings, and paid rent, in particular, have become more expensive. These cost increases exacerbate the negative impact of lower yields on income.
Starch potatoes are an exception
Not all arable farmers will face a drop in income. Starch potato farms are a clear exception. Income on these farms will increase to approximately €116.000 per unpaid aje for the 2025 harvest year, partly due to higher yields per kilo and a more favorable trend in yields than costs. This is above both the 2024 and multi-year averages.
Big differences
As in other agricultural sectors, income disparities within arable farming remain large. Farm type, crop rotation, the extent of contract farming, and cost control largely determine how much lower prices impact farm profits. The estimate underscores that, after several relatively favorable years, arable farming is once again facing increased market volatility and smaller margins.
John Ramaker
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