A flag was planted on the onion market at the beginning of April: between 85.000 and 100.000 tons of onions would remain at the end of this season. An extremely difficult amount to determine, which causes quite a bit of division within the onion world. After all, the figures only have to come out slightly differently and then there is no longer a question of a large deficit.
Plan Wiskerke
At the beginning of April, Het Financieele Dagblad interviewed Chayenne Wiskerke about its plan to export the Dutch onion surplus to East Africa. In doing so, she wants to help alleviate the enormous famine that is prevalent there. According to Wiskerke, this concerns a volume of 85.000 to 100.000 tons of onions. Figures that HOA chairman Gijsbrecht Gunter also considered realistic.
Weekly export is higher
Chayenne based her estimate on an export of approximately 10.000 tons of onions per week. On average, exports are somewhat higher. In the last 4 weeks, this involved approximately 13.650 tons of onions. Assuming an additional 3.650 tons per week, this means an additional sales of 20 tons in the 73.000 weeks until the end of this season. This was not expected before. This leaves 27.000 tonnes, which also includes tare, spillage and sales to Poland. The large surplus can therefore also turn into a deficit.
Stock can be guessed
Inquiries among onion traders show that few dare to worry about a forecast for the onion stock. Everyone has their own figures and calculations for this. VTA calculated in its April forecast that there were 10 percent fewer onions in stock than last year. The percentage of onions delivered was the same and the free stock is slightly higher compared to last year.
"With 15 weeks to go and the volume exported so far, approximately 18.500 tons must be exported every week to clear the stock," says buyer William Nannes of Beemsterboer. They do agree with Wiskerke's estimate. 'But 12.500 tons are leaving, so we are actually missing 6.000 tons.'
Negative daylight
What particularly bothers insiders and traders is that the media also picks up the reporting and accepts the 100.000 tons of onion surplus as truth. This puts the onion market in an even more negative light, which does not benefit sales and certainly not the mood, they argue. Nobody wants that at this stage of the season.
Poland uncertain factor
What makes the situation even more difficult is the export of onions to Poland. A country that previously purchased substantial volumes of onions from the Netherlands. The country actually had a good domestic harvest last year. As a result, the need for our onions has decreased significantly. Trade with Poland was also a lot more difficult last season.
In addition, Polish traders have now discovered the term trial freight. They no longer accept all offers. The advantage is that the Dutch onions this season are of good quality on average.
wait
"Exports to Poland are trickling in quietly, but a sudden increase in volumes is not noticeable," says Hans van Kemenade of Jakova. His company is active, among other things, in the export of onions to Poland for the fresh market and peeling. 'Some large processors in Poland are already ready. Others only use their own product. Various use both Polish and Dutch onions. In our country we know exactly how large the stock is. In Poland you always have to wait and see,' says Van Kemenade.
If the relatively cold weather continues, Polish growers can keep them good for another month and process their own harvest. Companies there do not suddenly buy cheap Dutch onions and then be left with their own onions. 'The quantities are small, not large volumes.'
A little more question
Nannes notices that certain areas are asking for a little more this week. 'Brazil asks for some onions and some containers go to Guinea and Gabon. However, the price does not immediately increase, because then demand immediately decreases. Next week there will only be 3 working days, so it will seem busy, but in terms of kilos it won't be too bad.'