44 percent fewer onions is just the beginning

Statistics Netherlands estimates the gross yield at 811.392 tons, with an area of ​​25.376 hectares. This is a minus of 44% compared to the 2017 yield, which historical was high. A large area and good growing conditions ensured this, with the exception of the south-west of the Netherlands.

Reliability
Much has been said and written about the provisional figures for 2017. It is not without reason that CBS adds a note from the letter to Parliament message. Opponents were (or are) of the opinion that the figures distort the market and paint an unrealistic picture. Over 7 years, the final yield (compared to the provisional figures) varied between -6,5% and +7,4%. In 4 years it was lower and in 3 years it was higher.

"The onion growers were looking for a scapegoat and found it in CBS," says an insider. “What followed was a ridiculous discussion.” The figures turned out to be close to the truth. Now the main discussion is whether the percentage can decrease further. Several exporters and sorters are registered Boerenbusiness know that they calculate with 50%.

What is the net proceeds?
In 2017, the difference between gross and net yield was 131.300 tons, in 2016 it was about 82.600 tons and in 2015 it was 125,800 tons. The multi-year figures differ by an average of 113.000 tons. With this fact as a base, it would mean a net yield of 698.392 tons, which represents a decrease of 47%. However, most likely the yield is even lower.

"Onion germination is a silent killer in many batches," says an onion sorter from Emmeloord. "You can smell Fusarium, but not a germ. The germination tests show that no batch has 100% dormancy. Our own tests also show this. Even when growers are convinced of a successful MH spraying, it is disappointing."

Offer through quality
Other sorting companies confirm this. In the southwest and north of the Netherlands, growers are realistic about quality. Surprises are lurking, especially in Flevoland, where average to good yields have sometimes been achieved. The issue of dormancy or dormancy causes a depressed supply among the sorters, causing the export figures exceed that of last year. Exporters are divided as to whether this level can be maintained. Some expect a decline from week 43, because no boat left for Africa at the end of October.

"Whether there is 35% or 45% less makes little difference," responds an exporter. "It's mainly a puzzle where your onions The United States, Turkey, Spain, China and Ukraine. From March and April, onions can also be delivered from Egypt and New Zealand. "Onions in New Zealand are pre-determined. We are now bringing them forward by 2 months," says a buyer. Sorters use their spring stock. When cells are emptied, the final yield is always disappointing.

Are alternative countries the salvation? Opinions are divided on this. One sees it as a solution, while the other speaks of a drop in the ocean. The onion area in New Zealand is 6.000 hectares. In addition to domestic consumption, part goes to Japan and Indonesia, among others. How many onions the Netherlands can purchase depends on the price they want to pay.

World market designed differently
The highest bidder currently wins. Central American buyers are served by the United States because they are in a favorable position. China is said to supply Asia with onions and Argentina and Brazil are mentioned as countries with opportunities. The only European country currently in a position to export onions is Spain.

"The harvest in Spain has been very good, due to more than sufficient rainfall. The yields sometimes exceed 100 tons per hectare," says an insider. "The United Kingdom already buys its large onions in Spain, where the price is lower than in the Netherlands. Spanish growers are opting for their money and taking advantage of the situation. Moreover, their onions do not have as long a shelf life as the Dutch ones."

There are also graders who question such stories. A few containers from China or a few loads of Moroccan onions to Senegal are not nearly enough to provide all buyers with enough onions. The sector is also asking itself the question: what is the maximum cost of 1 onion? They see the current price as a ceiling.

Bale prices currently vary from €20 for triplets to €32 to €33 for 45 to 65 millimeters and up to a maximum of €38 for large onions. In order to achieve grower prices of €40 or more, the bale price must first move.

Blow for sorting companies
Regardless of the price level, the margins for sorter and exporter remain the same, according to various companies. Half as many onions means half as much work for the sorting companies. That is disastrous when you have dozens of employees. The personnel costs are fixed, while this does not apply to the work.

"There are 40 onion sorting companies in the Netherlands, but I expect there will be at least 5 fewer next year," concludes a sorter. "Due to the intense competition, companies have not been able to build up reserves, which means the situation is now dire."

Conclusions:

• The final harvest estimate is estimated at 50% fewer onions.
• Germination of the onions is concern number 1, in addition to size sorting.
• There is a lot of supply, due to poor storage quality (this applies to all of Europe).
• Onion companies search for onions worldwide.
• Spring stocks are already being used.
• There is hesitation and division about the higher price level.
• The quality requirements are adjusted where possible.
• The sorting companies struggle with a low volume to be processed.