Which direction is the onion market taking?

At the regional fairs, only Goes showed a plus of €0,25 per 100 kilos compared to last week. This most likely has to do with the extra sales to Senegal, which briefly created a demand for onions. There is mainly uncertainty about the course of the marketing season after New Year's Eve. That makes traders cautious about taking positions.

The fact that the trade is hesitant can partly be explained by the course of the previous season. Even then, exports ran smoothly until New Year's Eve. The expectation at the time was that, because there were already many onions on the market, the price could increase during the second half of the season. That didn't happen. However, the course of that season is still fresh in the minds of the trade and in that sense it is easy to explain why traders are watching the situation. However, it is certainly not said that such a pattern will repeat itself this season.

Large stock, but not extremely large
Although a relatively large number of onions were harvested last season, the stock at the start of the new year is not extremely large. If we take the CBS yield estimate as a starting point and reduce exports up to and including week 49, the current stock is at a level that is somewhat comparable to the 2017/2018 and 2019/2020 seasons. In those seasons, prices rose very carefully until the end of April and only really decided on a direction at the end of the season. They are of course onions (in other words: the price can go in any direction), but a longer period in which the market does not make a real step up or down is certainly not inconceivable. Especially with the current prices, where Dutch onions are quite competitive on the European market.

An overview of these bale prices can be found in the DCA quotation Bale price of Onions.