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Analysis Onions

An estimate: how many onions are left?

20 January 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg - 78 comments

The 2021/2022 onion season already set a record in terms of total harvest, and an excellent first half of the export season is added to this. Up to and including week 52, more than 800.000 tons of onions have already been exported. The question on the market right now is: how many onions are left? Boerenbusiness together with the market experts from DCA, has made an estimate of the onion stock in the second half of the season.

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De yield forecast that we compiled in October, resulted in a total Dutch seed onion harvest of 1.565.800 tons with a yield of 52,1 tons per hectare. Based on the onions that have been delivered so far, that estimate was a bit on the high side. There is considerable variation in yield between (and also within) regions. Overall, yields are lower, especially in the southwest and some parts of the north. The average yield has therefore been adjusted to 50,5 tons per hectare. With the area of ​​seed onions, which is 30.400 hectares, the total harvest amounts to 1.535.200 gross tons.

How many are gone?
There are plenty of them before New Year's Eve 800.000 tons of onions exported. That's net. Based on reports from the trade, an average tare percentage of 9% seems realistic for the first half of the season. This brings gross exports to approximately 872.000 tons. The export figure does not include trade between grower and foreign buyer. Especially during and shortly after the export period, many (moderate) onions went to Poland. It is estimated that approximately 150.000 tons of onions went directly from the farmer to Poland. Conversely, Dutch sorters also buy directly from growers abroad, especially in Belgium and to a lesser extent in Germany. We estimate that quantity at 50.000 tons. The theoretical stock of onions as of January 1, 2022 therefore amounts to 563.200 tons.

To arrive at the stock to be exported, the tare is added. This percentage will be higher in the second half of the season. If we take 10% tare as a starting point, there would be 1 net tons available from January 512.000 to the new harvest. In this estimate we have made several assumptions, especially the 'grey' trade between growers and sorters in different countries and the average tare percentages are difficult to substantiate with hard figures.

More than stock figures
In addition to the stock figures, the demand for onions is perhaps even more important for the remainder of the season. For the time being, little can be concluded from the quotations. Prices on the regional stock exchanges have remained fairly stable for a number of weeks. Another point is how well the onions keep in storage. Compulsory supply of mediocre onions is generally not good for the mood on the market. On the other hand, traders are generally still fairly cautious when taking positions. If there is a sudden demand for onions, the market can quickly move upwards.

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