Agriphoto

Analysis Onions

Confidence and overconfidence are right next to each other

28 July 2023 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg - 22 comments

The demand for onions from Africa is picking up. And due to the changeable weather, the supply of onion sets is certainly not too coastal and too wide. Elements sufficient to justify confidence in the market. Some parties are very happy with the onions and there is a risk in that.

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Ships can be loaded for Africa again and this is clearly noticeable in the good mood among sorters. A somewhat disappointing export figure for the first week of the new season is easily forgotten. The demand from countries such as Senegal and Ivory Coast does not come at the most favorable time for Dutch growers. The rain this week was more than welcome for the crops that were still growing.

For crops that are ready for harvest, including the former onion sets, it would have been better to remain dry for a while. Sorters have quite a working stock in front of the drying wall, but when the gas is pressed, that stock is quickly consumed. And when loading onions, there is stealing between showers. So the supply of sufficient onions is not a certainty. €50 for onion sets that can be delivered quickly will also be included again this week. If you really can't get the onions in the field next week - because of the weather - then the occasional grower who has already brought onions in to dry could be the lucky one.

Grows like a jekko
The cards are shuffled differently for the former sowing onions. Last week, sorters and traders were still quite happy with prices in the low €40 range, while now the boat is being held back a bit. And the rain also plays a role here. It grows like jekko.

Bad plots do not suddenly look good. Plots that were a bit doubtful, on the other hand, are improving rapidly and the better plots are simply doing well. Couple that with the onion sets that have to be pushed and you understand why the trade is a bit more cautious. The sorters are starting to think more in terms of a supply-driven market, while growers reason much more from demand and calmly say to a buyer, come back when there is a 5 in front of it.

scoff
Ex-land prices that are around or above €40 are not something to scoff at, various sources have warned. If you have the space to store them, you can take a chance, although it is certainly not guaranteed that we will get a repeat of last season, where the price made big steps in the second half of the season. But if you know that you will have to sell (part of) it off the land anyway, this might be the time to strike. How much room is there left upstairs? For example, is that the top of the onion onions ex-field at the moment €50? Where is the bottom in the market, €16 paid for the new harvest in the spring? No questions that will make you popular with growers, but questions that make the difference between a well-made sandwich or barely earning dry bread.

De  DCA quotation Bale price of Onions remains on average fairly stable compared to last week at around €62 and €63 per 100 kilos. The price of triplets is somewhat under pressure, although there are also sorters who use 45 mm as the bottom of the middle, which means that few triplets are produced from a batch. The bottom of the quotation has been raised for coarse and supers.

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