Reasoning and making well-considered decisions has been pushed aside in the onion market. Go with the flow and emotions reign supreme. There is nothing wrong with that and it can bring beautiful things. You just have to be careful at such a stage.
Africa that is on the market, sorters who kept relatively small working stocks, the necessary quality problems that appeared scattered and growers who secretly hope for a repeat of last season. These are the ingredients that have set the onion market adrift. And if all goes well, there won't be a problem this month. And if African buyers continue to do something as usual in the first weeks of January, then even a little longer. Secretly it is even whispered that it is a matter of time before a receipt is written for €50 for delivery in December.
Bigger harvest, but what is there to sell?
What is more interesting is what will happen after the Africa season. Will we have a few rough weeks in February, just like last season, and then continue with good courage, or will it be difficult to keep the market going? Figures on the European onion harvest should provide clarity about this, but only create uncertainty. According to preliminary figures, the onion harvest in Germany and Spain is larger than last year, in the Netherlands it is approximately the same and in Poland it is somewhat smaller. For the entire EU, various sources assume a total harvest that will be approximately 5% larger compared to last season. Lower European demand - which we should have in the second half of the season - would be logical. However, it certainly cannot be said that the coin will also fall in that direction. Quality problems are not an exclusively Dutch problem. The growing season has been quite extreme in almost all of Europe and growers and processors are still experiencing this in the batches that are in the shed. And let us not forget that Dutch exports are almost 20% behind last season.
It is not illogical that growers with top quality large onions are not too concerned and at least keep a portion on hand to participate in a possible rally later in the season. The reluctance of sorters to buy in the long term is also easily explained. You have to come up with serious money and ultimately there is no guarantee on the investment.
De DCA quotation Bale price of Onions is also taking a step up this week, although not as fast as last week. In some cases there is a difference between asking and receiving and the moment of sale also makes quite a difference in a market that is so moving. On Monday it was a struggle, so to speak, to get €50, while today €52 almost seems like a bargain.