Larger area does not necessarily come at the expense of price

The area of ​​seed onions in the Netherlands has never been as large as this season. According to the CBS 32.665 hectares. The yield estimate of the CBS is not yet available. The onions are generally not bad. There have been major upward peaks in other years. The average yield over the last ten years was 44,88 tons per hectare.

If we take the average yield as a starting point, the total harvest this season would amount to 1,47 million tonnes. That is almost the same as the harvest in 2021 and 2017, when 1,47 and 1,45 million tonnes of onions were harvested respectively. The price development was quite different in those seasons. In the 2017 harvest year, the market ended on a minor note, while in 2021 the price rebounded in the second half of the season.

Exports in the first half of the season (roughly weeks 27 to 52) have a predictive effect on what will happen on the market in the second half. If more than half of the harvest is gone before New Year, prices tend to rise in the spring. In harvest year 2021, 52% of the total harvest was exported up to and including week 55. If we maintain that 55% for this season, the exporters will still have a lot of work to do. Up to and including week 35, almost 160.000 tonnes of onions were exported according to figures from KCB/GroentenFruit Huis. With a harvest of 1,47 million tonnes, 642.300 tonnes should be exported in the remaining seventeen weeks until New Year. That amounts to a weekly export of almost 38.000 tonnes.

A weekly export of 38.000 tonnes on average is, if we are honest, not realistic. The assumption that we will arrive at an average yield per hectare is perhaps also on the high side. It is mainly the deliveries from the field that clearly show what is actually being harvested. You hear from various sides that lorries rarely or never have to be ordered because the onions are better than expected.

Grey import
Another major uncertainty is the grey import of onions from our neighbouring countries. The rule of thumb was that these onions could be crossed off against onions that go directly from the grower to, for example, Polish buyers without the intervention of a Dutch exporter or trader. However, onion cultivation in Germany has expanded considerably in the past year, just like in the Netherlands. Some of these onions are intended for Dutch sorters. The German onions are of course not included in the Dutch harvest estimate, but could end up in the export figures. 

The coming weeks will have to show which way the penny will drop. Looking at what has been happening on the regional stock exchanges in recent weeks, confidence in the onion market seems to be improving somewhat. Whether or not this was grown behind the market remains to be seen.