In terms of price, the onion trade is going like crazy. Where until four weeks ago a deal could still bounce back on half a cent, it is now almost going with pennies and dimes at the same time. This is also reflected in the DCA bale price this week.
The onion market is for most arable farmers the most volatile market they deal with. That volatility has been further emphasized in recent weeks. Once the flywheel starts turning and the market enters an upward spiral, confidence grows which further reinforces the positive mood in the market.
The good mood is further reinforced by stories that there are only a few free onions left with the growers. Whether that is really true, or that there are more onions than we think now, or that there are many onions with speculators is food for discussion. If we compare the harvest estimate of the CBS with the export figures, there should still be some exportable. If we assume the final harvest estimate of the CBS, almost 1,3 million tons of seed onions have been harvested. According to the figures of KCB, more than 13 million tons have been exported up to and including week 1. On paper, that means that for roughly the last 13 weeks of the season, 300.000 tons remain to be exported.
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Of course, tare is deducted from that and there is some that goes directly from the growers to Poland, for example, outside the figures. It is an assumption, but direct export to Poland can probably be largely offset against onions from Germany that were brought here via a Dutch grower with storage space, for example. This is outside the KCB figures. However you look at it, if the CBS and KCB figures are correct - which they are in the vast majority of seasons - exports in the coming weeks should average around or slightly above 20.000 tonnes.
Be that as it may, the prices at the farm have taken another step this week. For the coarse onions, there is a three at the top of all regional exchanges this week. Business has also been done at €40 for delivery in May. In the bale, sorters and exporters are still struggling to keep up with the grower prices. The DCA bale price has taken a big step up this week, but the range is wide. If a sorter can deliver a full load of top-quality supers, the price is now going towards €50. And that is not without reason, because they are almost non-existent. Coarse is now also over €35 in the bale. Mediums and triplets are a bit more difficult to trade.
Read here is the explanation from DCA Market Intelligence on the new quotations.