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Analysis Onions

50 euros is the standard for yellow seed onions

30 April 2025 - 9 comments

The fact that the available stock of yellow onions was getting tight as time went by, had been noticeable in the market for some time. All the available information that buyers of onions had could not prevent the price of yellow onions from creeping to unthinkable heights for this season. How much increase is still in the pipeline?

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The price development of yellow seed onions has had a special course this season. Among other things because the area of ​​seed onions had increased from 29.270 to 32.526 hectares, an increase of more than 11%. As a result, confidence in the sales of yellow seed onions in particular was hardly present from the start. Confidence in the sales of red seed onions was, incidentally, diametrically opposed to that of yellow.

The quotation for yellow seed onions started in week 34 of 2024 with an average of €12 for both the fine and coarse sorting of yellow onions and only started to increase from week 6 of 2025. The coarse sorting had its 'peak' in week 50 of 2024 with an average of €16 and the fine sorting 'peaked' in week 49 of 2024 with an average of €15. The period from week 34 of 2024 to week 6 of 2025 is the first half of the marketing season for onions, in which more than 900.000 tonnes of onions were exported. These figures do not include the onions that find their way to Poland as field crops.

Every season, including this season, the question is how the transition from the first to the second half of the sales season will proceed. In the first half of the year, many Dutch onions are prepared for the African market, with Senegal and Ivory Coast (180.000 tonnes and 150.000 tonnes respectively this season) being the largest buyers. When Senegal closes its borders in mid-January, significant sales will be lost that will not go unnoticed. Where in the past Brazil and - in the even more distant past - Russia effortlessly took over from Senegal, this is not the case this season. Not to Russia due to export bans and not to Brazil due to lack of demand, only 780 tonnes of onions were exported this season.

From that point of view, the lackluster mood in the onion market seems justifiable. However, this season there was a silent killer and that was the quality of the Dutch onions. Despite the good export, the quality appeared to block price increases. In the first half of the marketing season there was a compelling supply, which made the supply of onions seem unlimited. That was also the crux of the matter, because many onions that were not prepared for export in the Netherlands disappeared to Poland outside the official figures. Signals that this could involve large volumes were often not really believed, especially since real figures were lacking.

More onions than expected delivered
The sector now knows that many more onions have been delivered than many thought possible. The price of yellow seed onions has been rising since week 6 of 2025 and has already doubled in week 16 (10 weeks later!). Onions are now being traded for €50, with less than 60% coarse for delivery mid-June and super coarse for €47,50 for delivery in May. These prices are more than 300% higher than was achieved in week 6 of 2025, so you could say that the genie is out of the bottle.

'Better expensive than not for sale'
A further increase in the price of onions is also in the offing. Where €50 has now been paid in the long term, this will increasingly become the standard for direct, that is how it works in onions. And where it used to be mainly coarse onions, it is now all about onions of good quality. These are all signs that the pickings are becoming very slim and with the current price increase the ceiling has apparently not yet been reached. The proverb: 'better expensive than not for sale' is coming true this season.

summarizing

  • 11% more area of ​​seed onions (9% more yellow and 25% more red seed onions);
  • Little confidence and many quality problems resulted in an unlimited supply of onions;
  • Lack of visibility on Polish onion sales turned out to have a landmine effect;
  • Onion exports continued to progress well even after the Senegal border closed;
  • After Fruit Logistica (week 6 of 2025) the onion price has been rising and €50 has now been achieved;
  • Scarcity in onion supply, it is only the end of April, will further increase onion prices, with €60 possible.

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