ABN Amro predicts that
Volume growth across all business sectors
ABN Amro Sector Advisory foresees volume growth in 2017 and 2018 for all business sectors in the Netherlands. The Sector Barometers for the agricultural sector and the food sector are (relatively speaking) lowest, but here too sentiment is good.
The Economic Bureau of ABN Amro assumes total growth in the Netherlands of 2,4 percent in 2017. This growth is mainly due to an increase in consumption and exports. This is due to an increase in income and increased consumer confidence.
The agricultural sector
The sentiment among agricultural entrepreneurs is positive and many of them are benefiting from better market conditions. However, the differences between the many branches are still too great. For example, pig farmers and dairy farmers benefit from high prices, while poultry farmers struggle with low prices for eggs and meat.
The overall profit opinion of the agricultural sector is neutral. Although prices have increased considerably, costs have also risen considerably. The rise in prices is mainly due to higher prices for dairy (due to a shortage in supply) and pigs (due to a shrinking pig herd).
The number of bankruptcies in the agricultural sector is at a historically low level. Only the uncertainty surrounding Brexit still casts a shadow over the (overall) positive picture.
Effect of the upturn in the global economy
It is striking that the domestically oriented sectors (such as construction, business services and leisure) will grow the strongest in 2017 and 2018. The sectors that are heavily dependent on foreign countries will benefit in particular from the recovery in the global economy and the recovery in world trade.
The global economy is therefore clearly improving, but the economic trends in Europe are much more important for the Netherlands. European expectations are favourable, but still relatively moderate.
ABN Amro's Sector Barometer
ABN Amro has developed a Sector Barometer. This allows you to see what the general sentiment is among entrepreneurs in certain sectors. As previously reported, the agricultural and food sectors are lowest, but sentiment remains positive according to the Barometers.
The business services and TMT sectors currently score the highest. These sectors mainly benefit from the growth of the Dutch economy. Business confidence in the industry has also improved considerably. This largely coincides with the good confidence that entrepreneurs have in exports.
In the transport sector, the turnover developments can be called favourable, but here we see that transport entrepreneurs are starting to become a little more concerned. In the retail sector, both consumers and entrepreneurs are optimistic. This is due to the improving economy. In addition, the number of bankruptcies in this sector is relatively low.
Kimberly Baker
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