Does the climate have an effect on the building plan?

More cut crops instead of harvesting fruit. That should slow down global warming. However, the opposite is now the trend. It is more profitable to grow potatoes and beets. In addition, the Broad Weather Insurance can offer protection against more extreme weather. 

Broadly speaking, climate change has an effect on the agricultural sector in 2 ways due to the increasing concentrations of CO3 in the air.

• More revenue,
• More extreme weather,
• Changing crop balances (particularly due to the changing policies of the European Union, EU). 

The yields increase as the CO2 concentration in the air increases. That is the basis of biology, namely photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is converted into carbohydrates under the influence of light and temperature. 

250 millimeters of rain in 1 day
So far, so good. Without the adverse effects of climate change, the Dutch agricultural and horticultural sector would only benefit. The complicating factor: the increasing concentration of CO2 in the air pushes the temperature on Earth up, causing extreme weather. In particular, the strength of showery precipitation in the growing season continues to increase, especially in Western Europe. That says the weather farmer from the east Gerrit Vossers from Silvolde (Gelderland). 

In the month of June, 1 millimeters of water fell in the city of Berlin in 250 day. Vossers hears from various potato growers, who make precipitation observations on plots at some distance from each other, that the character of these increasing showers can be very local. In addition to the increasing flooding, the risk of the crops becoming soiled is also increasing and the risk of hail damage is also increasing. 

At the same time, in addition to the increasing intensity of summer showers, periods of drought are also increasing. Climate change also means a greater risk of night frost damage in the spring. The European research institute JRC, which publishes monthly growth figures and forecasts of agricultural crops in the EU, warned this spring of extreme weather conditions. Less than a month later, the institute was proved right, when the blossoms in fruit trees froze on a large scale in the east of the Netherlands. 

European Union policy crucial
However, due to the greater vagaries of the weather, the farming plan for arable farming in the Netherlands has not changed significantly so far. However, there is an increase in the popularity of the Broad Weather Insurance. However, the biggest changes in building plans are caused by the European Union and by market forces. 

Due to liberalization of the sugar market and rising sugar prices, the acreage of sugar beet in the Netherlands is increasing considerably. This is at the expense of grain cultivation, according to figures from Statistics Netherlands. And that is precisely what is detrimental to CO2 emissions. At least if we are to believe the experts. About 10 years ago, LTO claimed that sugar beet cultivation was actually beneficial for the environment.

Now 10 years later, everyone agrees that cut crops emit less CO2 than harvested fruit. This is mainly due to the organic matter that these crops leave behind in the soil. That is why LTO's arable farming department is in favor of stimulating the cultivation of mowed crops. 

An integrated policy from the EU
Both the arable farming department of LTO and the NAV mainly want intrigued policy from the EU. Free market policy is and remains a starting point, but farmers and horticulturists do not only strive for profit maximization in the short term. They also have a continuity objective and an associated long-term strategy. This requires not only the EU's attention for climate change, but also the commitment to food security and a fair distribution of the margin.

The worldwide free trade policy regularly conflicts with this. It remains to be seen, however, which direction the European Union's policy will take. That is what NAV chairman Teun de Jong says. He sees the policy of the hectare allowances shifting to allowances for climate and nature policy. These are paid from the so-called first pillar, whereby the Netherlands does not have to contribute. That will only be the case if the aid comes from the second pillar, which finances rural policy. 

Can't see the forest for trees
What can you as a grower do to combat the adverse effects of climate change? "Adding organic matter to the soil and improving water management", advises De Jong. "But even then you can't see the forest for the trees."

What exactly is the contribution of the various arable crops to net CO2 production? And which part is created further down the chain, when the crops are already off the land? Is forest really that much more beneficial for the climate than arable farming? Or will the expansion and protection of the area remaining grassland make the biggest contribution?

The latter is stated by the trade fair organization of the Belgian agricultural fair Libramont, which is traditionally held in the Ardennes next weekend (28 to 31 July). De Jong: "Everyone, at home and abroad, limits themselves to a limited number of facets of climate change to his or her advantage. Otherwise it just gets too complicated."

This article is part of the summer series on climate change. All articles can be found here. 

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