Countus Agriculture Index
Arable farming index to lowest level since 2012
Despite a small revival in mid-June, the Countus Arable Farm Index should really let loose in July. This puts the index in free fall. In week 27 it recorded a level of 81, before falling rapidly to 66. That level was last reached in early 2012.
In the first months of 2012, the arable index at 66,6 points. In week 30 of 2017 this is 66. Only in 2005 was the index even lower, with an absolute low of 44,2. Between week 28 and week 30 it went downhill quickly with the quotation, which was able to make up for it at the end of June and climb 3 points. This is due to a revival in seed potato prices.
66
points
Waiting for onion listing
No product can make the Arable Farm Index go up. The price peak in wheat is behind us for the time being. The potato forward contract for April also offers little to hold on to. It stopped listing the onion price at the end of June, because the old season is almost over. We have to wait for the new quotation for seed onions.
What can turn the tide?
The question is which price quotation can turn the tide for the index? After a close of €9,50 for the April contract at the beginning of week 30, the price has made up for it again. What the futures market will do is partly dependent on the weather. Excessive precipitation in Germany and the Netherlands or drought in Belgium and France? Between all the showers, the wheat is brought in in Western Europe. Despite new forecasts, this is usually not good for the European price for fodder wheat. So it keeps crashing.
Niels van der Boom
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